The James Webb space telescope has been observing the smallest object of all its history. For a good reason. This is the famous 2024 YR4 asteroid that, at the beginning of the year, appeared in NASA’s planetary defense systems and ESA as a potentially dangerous object.
First measurement. The images taken with the near infrared chamber (NIRCAM) of the Webb Telescope show the light reflected by the asteroid. Those taken with the Middle Infrared Instrument (Miri) show their thermal light.
The set of these data has allowed astronomers to determine that 2024 YR4 measures 60 meters in diameter, approximately the height of a 15 -story building. However, the asteroid shares thermal properties with larger bodies, perhaps due to the rapid speed at which it is rotating or the lack of fine sand (regolito) on its surface. It is probably formed by rocks the size of a fist or even larger.
It will not collide with the earth. The first observations of the Webb, which began on March 8, have also confirmed what NASA and ESA had been saying: 2024 YR4 is not a threat to our planet. The probability of crossing with the Earth in December 2032 is now 0.0011%.
A relief, considering that it became 3.2% when there were not enough data to close the range of uncertainty in the calculations of its trajectory. The UN will no longer have to coordinate with space agencies to try to divert it or to evacuate cities at risk.
I could impact the moon. On the other hand, the Webb has confirmed a 2% chance that 2024 YR4 clash with the moon. It is still a very small probability (seen otherwise, there is a 98% probability that it does not happen), but in this case astronomers are in favor of the impact.
That the asteroid clashes with the moon would not put us in danger, and instead would allow astronomers to document the impact of a meteorite, their effects on the satellite and the lunar surface material that would be triggered.
While natural asteroids that impact the moon are not so rare, they are difficult to predict even after being observed, when their mass and speed are unknown. 2024 YR4 would be a perfectly controlled experiment thanks to all the data that scientists have collected about it.
In favor of the impact. “Part of our motivation to continue observing this asteroid in particular is to find out if that number (the probability of impact with the moon) will increase or will also be reduced to zero,” Andrew Rivkin told New Scientist, one of the astronomers of the Johns Hopkins University who asked for hours of the Webb Space Telescope to observe 2024 YR4.
“We cross our fingers so that there is an impact on the moon,” added Alan Fitzsimmons, of the Queen’s University of Belfast. “It would have no effect on Earth, but it would allow us to study for the first time the formation of a lunar crater by a known asteroid.”
Images | NASA, ESA, CSA
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