Now, the new price target is $230, lowered from $240. This reflects lower expectations for revenue and earnings over the next 18 months. Apparently, there are projections about weaker demand for the upcoming iPhone 17 series, and also, the broader economic pressures that may influence customer spending.
JP Morgan expects slower iPhone 17 sales. According to the note, people rushed to buy iPhones sooner than usual to avoid the expected price hikes from tariffs by the Trump administration.
And yep, this means that this surge in buying activity would make fewer people interested in the iPhone 17. After all, if everyone recently got new iPhone 16 models, would they be willing to upgrade that soon? Also, there are limited hardware changes expected in the iPhone 17, according to the investor note, so this will also hamper interest in the new models.
So basically, production forecasts for the iPhone 17 models are reportedly tracking below the levels for 2024. The estimated number of production units is about 9% lower than the one for the iPhone 16, which could indicate that Apple is planning to be cautious.
However, Apple is projected to ship roughly the same number of iPhones as in 2024, but with a weaker second half of the year.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan’s forecast also indicates there may be a reduced growth for Apple’s Services segment. This segment has been a key driver of expansion in recent years, but it may experience slower growth this time around.
The tariffs
Apple moves its supply chain from China to India to hopefully avoid some of the US tariffs and protect its margins. However, according to the investor note, this move wasn’t enough to offset expected volume loss due to higher prices.
Mainly, J.P. Morgan reportedly believes that this move will benefit Apple in the long term rather than in the short term.
Basically, this revised price target marks the shift in the expectations of analysts for Apple’s hardware growth and their new, adjusted predictions. Of course, the iPhone will remain central for Apple, but it’s possible that smaller updates may lead to less enthusiasm from buyers.
Apple Intelligence, iPhone 18, foldable iPhone
But that’s not all the analysts at J.P. Morgan predict. The note also looks further ahead and notes that stronger momentum may return with the iPhone 18 series. Also, in 2026, Apple is expected to offer its first foldable iPhone on the market, as well as more advanced Apple Intelligence features. According to the note, these two updates could renew interest in Apple and even accelerate the pace of revenue growth for the fiscal 2027. Meanwhile, the firm’s 2025 earnings forecasts remain more or less the same as before.
Apple is expected to make a bit more money from iPhone sales in the short term. However, predictions for their Services (like iCloud, Apple Music, etc.) and overall profit margins have been slightly lowered. Looking ahead to 2026 and 2027, growth in the number of iPhones sold might slow down, especially if prices go up and people become more sensitive to those increases. On top of that, possible extra costs from international trade tariffs could also put pressure on profits.
Curiously enough, investors are focused on AI, even though not many people are actually using it and the results aren’t always reliable. Apple, on the other hand, is taking a slower and more careful approach compared to other companies.
A foldable iPhone is also rumored to be coming around the same time. Some say production might start in late 2025, with a possible launch in 2026 – though others think it could be pushed to 2027.In the meantime, Apple is keeping investors happy by making steady money from its services (like subscriptions) and managing profits carefully. But according to J.P. Morgan, Apple’s short-term growth might stay a bit slow unless the Cupertino tech giant manages to wow people with a more exciting hardware upgrade soon.
