Lithuania announced this week that it will close its border with Belarus for one month in response to a series of balloon incursions from the Belarusian side. The decision underscores the country’s determination to counter what it views as ongoing aggressive acts by the Belarusian authorities.
The border shutdown follows a recent wave of Belarusian balloons entering Lithuanian airspace. The incursions have prompted airport closures and cause significant travel disruption, with more than 170 flights affected during October. On Sunday night alone, Lithuanian authorities detected 66 airborne objects heading from Belarus into the Baltic country.
Minsk has sought to downplay the incursions as a mere cigarette smuggling operation, but Vilnius insists the balloons are part of a broader hybrid war being waged by Russia and Belarus against Europe. “Smuggling in this case is just a subtext or a means for a hybrid attack against Lithuania. We have a lot of evidence, both direct and indirect, that this is a deliberate action aimed at destabilizing the situation in Lithuania,” commented Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda. He warned of additional countermeasures, including restrictions on Belarusian rail transit and unified EU-wide sanctions mirroring those imposed on Russia.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed Nausėda’s comments and expressed solidarity with Lithuania, calling the Belarusian balloons a “hybrid threat” that Europe will not tolerate. She linked the issue to the European Union’s broader push for enhanced military readiness, particularly in terms of airspace defense capabilities against the growing threat posed by Russian drones and aircraft.
Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka has dismissed European concerns and attacked the Lithuanian decision to close the border as a “crazy scam,” while also accusing the West of waging a hybrid war against Belarus and Russia. His denials lack credibility, however, given the recent spate of airspace violations across Europe and along the EU’s eastern frontier with Russia and Belarus.
Around twenty Russian drones penetrated Polish airspace in early September, leading to an unprecedented armed response from NATO jets. Some of the Russian drones entered Poland via Belarus, highlighting Minsk’s role in Moscow’s campaign of hybrid aggression. Days later, a small group of Russian fighters violated NATO airspace off the coast of Estonia.
There have also been numerous incidents over the past two months involving suspected Russian drones close to strategic sites throughout Europe including military bases and international airports. Speaking in September, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen claimed the drone incursions were part of a Russian hybrid war and said Europe was facing its “most difficult and dangerous situation” since the end of World War II.
European airspace violations serve a number of purposes for Putin and his Belarusian proxy. In practical terms, they allow the Kremlin to probe NATO defenses and test the alliance’s readiness to combat incursions. Russian drones and Belarusian balloons also inconvenience the European public and intimidate European leaders at a time when the continent is already increasingly alarmed by US President Donald Trump’s mixed messaging over America’s commitment to European security.
Eurasia Center events
In response to Lithuania’s border closure, Lukashenka has warned that he may now stop cooperating with Brussels on migration issues. Given his regime’s well-documented prior weaponization of migrants on the Belarusian border with the European Union, this is a very thinly-veiled threat.
At the same time, the Belarusian ruler is also attempting to engage in renewed outreach to the West, with a particular emphasis on the US. Lukashenka has held a number of meetings with United States officials in recent months, leading to the release of political prisoners held by Belarus and an easing of American sanctions against Belarusian national airline Belavia.
This apparent thaw has been hailed in Washington as a sign of progress, but not everyone is convinced. Human rights groups have identified 77 new political prisoners in Belarus during September 2025, more than the total number of detainees freed in US-brokered releases since the start of the year. In other words, it would appear that Lukashenka is seeking sanctions relief without committing to end repressive policies at home and while continuing to serve Moscow’s strategic interests.
The Trump administration has signaled its dissatisfaction over recent Belarusian balloon violations of Lithuanian airspace. “I made clear we stand in solidarity with Lithuania amidst recent balloon incursions. Belarus should prevent further such incidents,” commented US Special Envoy John Coale, who has been directly involved in this year’s talks with the Lukashenka regime.
Growing tensions on the Lithuanian border with Belarus should serve as further confirmation that Lukashenka remains fully committed to participating in Russia’s confrontation with the West. Belarusian balloon violations of EU airspace are part of a Kremlin-led campaign to test Western resolve, strain NATO solidarity, and intimidate Europe. As long as Lukashenka continues to play a supporting role in Putin’s hybrid war against the West, he should be regarded as an adversary.
Hanna Liubakova is a journalist from Belarus and nonresident senior fellow at the .
The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the , its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.
Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alyaksandr Lukashenka visit the war memorial to Heroes of Battle of Stalingrad on Mamayev Kurgan, as they arrive to mark the upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two in Volgograd, Russia. April 29, 2025. (Sputnik/Vladimir Smirnov/Pool via REUTERS)
