Digging into the details of the US-Saudi deals

“We’ve always been on the same side of every issue.” That’s how US President Donald Trump described Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) during a chummy Oval Office meeting on Tuesday, part of a day of pageantry and dealmaking at the White House. The United States and Saudi Arabia struck a series of agreements on defense, semiconductors, nuclear power, and more. While the world awaits the fine print of these deals, our experts took stock of what the leaders have announced so far and what to expect next. 

• Daniel B. Shapiro (@DanielBShapiro): Distinguished fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and US ambassador to Israel
• Tressa Guenov: Director for programs and operations and senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, and former US principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs 
• Jennifer Gordon: Director of the Nuclear Energy Policy Initiative and the Daniel B. Poneman chair for nuclear energy policy at the Global Energy Center
• Tess deBlanc-Knowles: Senior director with the Technology Programs and former senior policy advisor on artificial intelligence at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy

Jet setters

• On defense, Trump approved the sale of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, which Dan interprets as an indication that the US president “is going all-in on the US-Saudi relationship.” 
• But “China remains an issue in the backdrop of US-Saudi defense relations,” Tressa tells us. She notes that US intelligence agencies have reportedly raised concerns about Chinese access to the F-35 if a US-Saudi sale were to proceed, and “similar efforts to sell F-35s to the UAE were not realized across the previous Trump and Biden administrations, in part due to concerns of technology transfer to China.” 
• There’s also the US legal requirement to ensure Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME) in the region. Dan points out that although the 2020 F-35 deal with the United Arab Emirates was later scuttled, it did pass a QME review, and the Saudi deal is likely to do so as well, in part because “Israel will have been flying the F-35 for a decade and a half before the first Saudi plane is delivered, and Israel will have nearly seventy-five F-35s by then.” 
• But the UAE deal was linked to its normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel, and “it appears there is no link to Saudi normalization” with Israel in this deal, Dan points out. In the Oval Office, MBS conditioned his joining the Abraham Accords on “a clear path” to a Palestinian state, which does signal a potential disparity from Saudi Arabia’s previous stance requiring the “establishment” of a Palestinian state.
• The Biden administration held talks with Saudi Arabia about a treaty that “would have included restrictions on Saudi military cooperation with China and ensured access for US forces to Saudi territory when needed to defend the United States,” Dan tells us. But “Trump has not announced whether he is giving the Saudis a one-way security guarantee, or whether there are mutual-security commitments.” 
• So what about Trump’s announcement during MBS’s visit that Saudi Arabia has become the United States’ twentieth Major Non-NATO Ally? Tressa tells us the designation “is a favorite tool of US presidents to cap off major visits with a symbolic flourish to indicate elevated relations.” But Saudi Arabia already enjoys many of the benefits of the designation, Tressa notes, such as privileged access to US arms sales, and the designation “does not provide any special or enforceable security guarantees, nor is it a binding treaty.” 

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Nuclear option

• The White House also announced a Joint Declaration on the Completion of Negotiations on Civil Nuclear Energy Cooperation. Jennifer tells us it’s “likely a precursor to an official Section 123 agreement” on peaceful nuclear cooperation, which must also be reviewed by Congress. 
• “Saudi Arabia has indicated keen interest for years in pursuing civil nuclear technologies,” Jennifer notes, both to add to its power grid and for water desalinization. If the United States provides that nuclear technology, she adds, then “it can exert influence on security matters and help prevent the development of nuclear weapons in Saudi Arabia and beyond.”  
• “Although there had long been speculation that a civil nuclear agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia might cover broader geopolitical issues,” Jennifer adds, “this week’s announcement reflects a more pragmatic approach with a focus on technologies that have strong national security implications.” 

Chipping in

• The two leaders also announced an AI Memorandum of Understanding but did not release many details. “Likely this means the approval of the sale of a package of advanced AI chips to Saudi Arabia,” Tess says. In the Oval Office, she points out, “MBS shared his vision (and strategic bet) on computing to compensate for the country’s workforce shortfalls and ensure continued economic growth.” 
• While the Trump administration has lifted the Biden administration’s “AI Diffusion Rule” that limited the sale of chips to many countries, it still has the final say on exports of the most advanced chips to Saudi Arabia, Tess notes, “likely due to fears related to ties with China.” 
• Now, Tess adds, US national security officials will keep their eyes on “the provisions of the new AI agreement focused on technology protection and what measures will be put in place to keep America’s most advanced AI chips out of reach of Chinese adversaries.” 

Image: U.S. President Donald Trump greets Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman, during a dinner at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 18, 2025. REUTERS/Tom Brenner