The birth rate in Germany does not seem to have a bottom: according to the German Institute for Economic Research, in 2024 it will be 1.35 children per woman, compared to 1.58 children per woman in 2021. This is a new historical low and the worst is not that.
The worst thing is that it doesn’t surprise anyone. Who would be surprised that in a rich and aging country like Germany the birth rate is sinking? Although it has not yet reached the levels of Spain, the German country follows a demographic script written for a long time.
However, if we look at the data we see something interesting: in the eastern states (those that belonged to the GDR and have lower income levels), the number of births is decreasing faster than in the west of the country. It is a very clear example that the collapse of the birth rate is not just a matter of “wealthy places.”
It is something that reaches all humanity.
The best example is India. Especially because in 2023 the Indian giant surpassed China and is already the most populous country in the world.
Still, demographers are worried. A few days ago, the BBC reported that “currently, all five southern states have total fertility rates below 1.6: Karnataka, 1.6, and Tamil Nadu, 1.4. In other words, fertility rates fertility in these states are equal to or lower than those in many European countries. And this has consequences: the country is aging very quickly.
Debunking myths. Specifically, the myth that links the drop in birth rates to developed countries. While it took France 120 years to double its aging population from 7% to 14% (and Sweden, 80), forecasts say that “India will reach that milestone in just 28 years.”
In the same way, it took the US 160 years to go from 3.7 children per family to 2.7, the Philippines has done it in 15 years. No matter where we look, the problem is always the same: demographic change is accelerating and no one knows how to handle it. The direct consequence is that it is becoming unmanageable.
A dead end. After all, aging subjects societies to enormous stress. Tensions that in rich countries (if only because there are more resources) are easier to resolve. For the poor, everything is complicated. The Indian state of Andhra Pradesh has a fertility rate of 1.5. That is, “similar to that of Sweden, but its per capita income is 28 times lower.”
If Sweden (one of the healthiest pension systems in the world) has problems, how can Andhra Pradesh not have problems?
“Children of Men” (2007) explored the social, economic, political and cultural consequences of a world without children. We didn’t imagine that (without the elements of science fiction) we were going to encounter something like this in the medium term.
Why is all this happening? Most demographers agree that the major factor behind the decline in birth rates appears to be the rate of urbanization. It is something we have been able to observe in real time in Africa: the continent is urbanizing almost twice as fast as the world does and its birth rates are falling almost at the same rate.
There are many more factors (that slow down, modulate or accelerate it), but cities seem to expose human beings to a series of socio-cultural and economic incentives that lead them towards a drop in birth rates.
Is there a solution? If there is, no one knows about it. As we see, humanity is increasingly urbanized: in 2007, half of humanity was already living in cities for the first time. Now we are 55% and it will reach 66% before 2050. To the extent that there is no model different from that of large hyperproductive cities: we are going to an increasingly empty world.
And the consequences will hit, precisely, the most disadvantaged countries.
Image | children of men
In WorldOfSoftware | The demographic crisis in the West is no accident: most people do not have children simply because they do not want to.
