Google is playing a dangerous game with the Pixel 10 Pro

We’re less than two months out from when we expect Google to launch the Pixel 10 series, and yesterday, we saw one of the most significant leaks yet. Android Headlines published “official” specifications for the Pixel 10 Pro and Pixel 10 Pro XL, and assuming they’re accurate, they paint a worrying picture for this year’s Pro Pixel phones.

It’s not that the specs are bad, per se, but they’re virtually identical to the Pixel 9 Pro and Pixel 9 Pro XL. The display specifications remain unchanged, the cameras are identical to last year’s phones, and the RAM is untouched, too. There’s a modest increase in battery capacity (~100mAh more) for each phone, and the Pixel 10 Pro XL now starts at 256GB of storage, up from 128GB.

If this is true, it means the single biggest difference between the Pixel 10 Pro and Pixel 9 Pro will be the chipset. Google’s Tensor G5 is expected to be a significant release, and if it’s as good as we think it could be, the rest of the spec sheet might not matter so much. But if this year’s Tensor chip isn’t a complete success, we could be looking at one of the most underwhelming Pixel releases in years.

It’s no secret that Google has long struggled with its Tensor chips, specifically with battery efficiency and thermal management. Whether we’re talking about the Pixel 6 or the latest Pixel 9, Google’s Pixel phones almost always have worse battery life and thermal performance than competing phones with Qualcomm and MediaTek chips. It’s not as pressing of an issue now compared to Tensor’s early days, but it’s still a problem nonetheless.

While Google’s chip design certainly plays a role here, chips from Samsung Foundry consistently perform worse than TSMC-made ones. So, with a TSMC-made Tensor G5 in the Pixel 10 series, Google stands to have a Pixel phone that’s finally free of the battery and thermal woes it’s been unable to escape up until this point. And if that happens, it could be one of the most significant upgrades yet for Google’s smartphones.

But therein lies a critical word: if that happens.

At this point, it’s safe to assume that the Tensor G5 will be made my TSMC; we’ve seen enough reports and heard from enough sources that it seems like a given. Great. But even if we can rely on TSMC being this year’s chipset foundry, that doesn’t automatically guarantee the Tensor G5 will be the savior of Tensor chips that we like to think it’ll be.

It’s true that TSMC historically produces better silicon than Samsung, and while that should result in the Tensor G5 being free of battery and thermal throttling issues, we should also acknowledge that the challenges involved with changing chipset foundries. This is a big move for Google, and while it should ultimately be one for the better, it’s also naive to think it’ll be a perfectly seamless transition.

There’s very much a scenario in which the Tensor G5 isn’t the chip we want it to be, whether that means it’s a buggy and unoptimized mess, or it doesn’t deliver the night-and-day efficiency upgrades we think it’ll have. Should that happen, Google doesn’t have anything else going for the Pixel 10 Pro series to lean on.

Nothing else about the leaked spec sheets suggest exciting hardware for the Pixel 10 Pro or Pixel 10 Pro XL. If the Tensor G5 isn’t the incredible, all-powerful chip Google needs, what is it left with? Two phones that are repackages of their predecessors, just with a new chip that doesn’t push the needle forward. Who would want to buy that?

With this approach, the success of the Pixel 10 Pro rests entirely on the success of the Tensor G5, and it’s a strategy that leaves very little room for error.

As my colleague C. Scott Brown pointed out, there could be a good explanation for what Google is doing here. With the Tensor G5 being the first TSMC-made Tensor chip, Google might expect there to be some growing pains with its inaugural chip from a new foundry. By reusing so many Pixel 9 Pro components for the Pixel 10 Pro, Google can make the Pixel 10 Pro relatively safely and cheaply and get it into people’s hands with the sole purpose of seeing how the Tensor G5 performs in the wild.

Google has to realize that these specifications for its two new Pro phones aren’t particularly exciting, and maybe that’s the point. Maybe Google wants to solely focus on the chip, so whether it’s incredible or is a disaster, Google can pinpoint what went right or what went wrong and use that to make a better Pixel 11 Pro next year. There’s logic to that approach from a testing perspective, but I’m not sure how you market that to people as something they should buy.

As someone who has long been critical of Google’s Tensor chips, I can’t wait to see how the Tensor G5 shakes out. But at the same time, I am worried about the phone surrounding it.

Whether the majority of the Pixel 10 Pro is unchanged because Google has so much confidence in the G5, or because it wants to more easily identify problems if/when something goes wrong, the result will be the same. Either the Tensor G5 is fantastic and the Pixel 10 Pro wows us with the Tensor silicon we’ve been waiting for, or the G5 falls short with nothing else on the spec sheet to show for, leaving Google with a very difficult-to-sell smartphone.

This is a dangerous game Google is playing with the Pixel 10 Pro, and I hope it works out.