Having a long and healthy life is a goal for most people. Many of us want to achieve our dreams, travel, retire leisurely, and watch our children grow up — if we choose to have some. However, life is full of dangers that can cut it shorter than we want. The good news, though, is that the average human lifespan continues to increase. But could it increase even more beyond what it is now?
The oldest living person ever recorded was Jeanne Calment. She lived to be 122 years old and died in 1997. That is tremendously longer than the average lifespan. The World Health Organization (WHO) has data that shows for children born in 2015 the average life expectancy was 71.4 years, with women living four years longer than men.
Whether or not human lifespan will continue to increase is debated. Some optimistically believe humans will eventually live to be 1,000 years old, and a team of Dutch researchers have suggested that by the year 2070, human lifespans could increase to 125 years. However, other researchers believe we’ve hit a limit of sorts when it comes to our natural lifespans.
Will our life expectancy keep increasing?
According to Our World in Data, in the 1800s, life expectancy was no higher than 40 years for any part of the world. Going from that to the average of 71.4 years is already impressive, and moving beyond that would be even more remarkable, but is it possible?
A Dutch research team published a study in the Nature journal in 2017. Their conclusion was that improvements in housing and living standards, and better medical care, like the world’s first vaccine that doesn’t need refrigeration, will continue to contribute to a lifespan increase — predicting this to reach 125 years by 2070. They believe the most likely to live to 125 years old will be women, and that beyond the year 2070, the length of life could increase even more.
However, a more recent study published in Nature Aging in 2024 disagrees with this. This study analyzed mortality and life expectancy trends and found that improvements in life expectancy have slowed. The findings suggest that without major advances in slowing biological aging, significant human life extension is unlikely in this century. Commenting on the study, Professor of molecular metabolism William Mair of Harvard stated, “Historical data show us a ‘glass mortality floor’ of the maximum lifespan a human body can achieve with current medical technologies. What retrospective data simply cannot tell us is if that glass floor can be broken.”
What is stopping us from living longer lives?
Significant threats still exist that could halt lifespan improvement. Diseases wreak havoc on global populations. Obesity brought on by a sedentary lifestyle and fast food choices causes a multitude of problems. Plus, the growing world population strains resources and the economy as a whole.
Newborns have very high risks of death from birth complications and a less developed immune system. For adults, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), reports that nationally the leading cause of death is heart disease, followed by cancer. Such data shows how important it is to be aware of what we consume and how it impacts our health, like scientists finding a link between red meat and cancer.
Professor Mair emphasizes that there are two approaches to understanding limits on aging. One examines what factors cause people to live long and healthy lives. This research can then be applied to help people live up to and beyond the average lifespan. The other approach is to see if actually changing the biology of aging is possible. He stated, “There is no intellectual reason why we can’t break this upper limit of human lifespan of about 90 years. Public health hasn’t broken it yet, because that’s not what the goal of public health is. Could it be broken through targeting the biology of aging? Quite possibly … When someone asks me if humans will be able to live to 300 one day, the only responsible answer I can give is, I don’t know, yet!”
