The entry of North Korean troops into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last November has highlighted the increasingly global nature of the war unleashed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s US election victory has sent a strong signal to European leaders that they must prepare to invest more in their own defense, while also taking a lead in continued support for Ukraine.
Nobody is more acutely aware of these security realities than the new government in Lithuania, which took office in December 2024. Situated close to Russia on the eastern frontier of the democratic world, Lithuania is a member of both NATO and the European Union. The largest of the three Baltic states, it is on the front lines of the geopolitical struggle between the West and Putin’s resurgent brand of authoritarianism.
The Russian leader is not acting alone, of course. In December 2024, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda warned of an “emerging axis of evil” including Russia, Belarus, China, Iran, and North Korea. The Lithuanian leader stressed the importance of a “united stance” among his Western counterparts in response to this growing authoritarian alliance.
Strengthening national security will be among the top priorities for Lithuania’s new center-left government, which took shape in the final months of the past year following the country’s October 2024 parliamentary elections. The Lithuanian authorities have already raised military spending to above 3 percent of GDP in recent years; the new government is now promising the increase this figure to 3.5 or even 4 percent.
This would put Lithuania well ahead of most other NATO member states in terms of the country’s national defense budget. Nevertheless, Lithuania’s defense spending remains small in absolute and relative terms. While the current budget of just over 3 percent of GDP represents around 2.6 billion US dollars, Russia plans to commit 6.3 percent of GDP to defense in 2025, or approximately 126 billion US dollars.
Russia is also receiving considerable financial and material support from its authoritarian allies. Belarus served as a key base for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and has since begun hosting Russian nuclear weapons. China is propping up the Russian economy by purchasing Russian oil and gas, while Iran is providing Putin with large quantities of kamikaze drones that are used to attack Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure.
Russia’s most important partner is currently North Korea. Pyongyang first began supplying artillery shells to Moscow in late 2022. By October 2024, Western intelligence agencies were claiming that North Korea was providing half of all the shells being used by Russia in Ukraine. The Hermit Kingdom has also delivered significant quantities of ballistic missiles, and has reportedly sent more than ten thousand troops to join Putin’s invasion.
Eurasia Center events
With little sign that Russia has any intention of ending its Ukraine invasion, concerns are growing that an emboldened Putin may seek to go further. Lithuania’s location makes it an obvious potential Russian target. While the country is better prepared than many other NATO members to face this threat, much remains to be done.
While Lithuania’s defense budget is growing, far greater sums may be required. Research conducted in the second half of 2024 indicated that the Lithuanian government would need to quadruple defense spending in order to acquire sufficient weapons and establish the necessary infrastructure to repel a hypothetical Russian invasion for an initial 10-day period until NATO allies could fully deploy.
Lithuanian officials appear to understand the scale of the security challenges they now face. By late 2024, President Nausėda was arguing that the country must commit at least 5.5% of GDP to defense in the coming years. This will be a key task for Lithuania’s new Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė.
Most observers agree that creating a comprehensive national defense strategy and committing sufficient resources is the only way for Lithuania to deter the Kremlin. This will likely prove costly, but even the most expensive deterrence is far cheaper than dealing with the horrors of a Russian invasion.
Dr. Agnia Grigas is a senior fellow at the and author of Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire.
The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the , its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.
Image: President of Lithuania Gitanas Nauseda, takes part during the ceremony. A solemn ceremony of lieutenant ranks conferring on graduates of the Lithuanian Military Academy was held in Vilnius on the square in front of the Presidential Palace. The ranks of 76 graduates were personally conferred by the President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda. Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas and Lithuanian Army Commander Valdemaras Rupsis also took part in the ceremony. (Yauhen Yerchak / SOPA Images via Reuters Connect)
