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Microsoft’s Windows 10 will officially lose support on Oct. 14, but according to research firm Canalys, the US market hasn’t shown a significant uptick in PC demand so far.
PC shipments to the US “stagnated” in Q2, falling by 1.4% year-over-year to 18.6 million units, Canalys reported on Tuesday.
“Despite the approaching Windows 10 end-of-support and increasing awareness, consumers in the US are more willing to wait until their PCs need to be replaced due to greatly diminished performance or hardware failures,” says Canalys analyst Greg Davis.
It’s not a great sign for the industry. In 2019, the approaching end-of-support for Windows 7 was credited with sparking strong PC sales globally. That said, a significant portion of the demand came from commercial buyers, like office IT teams, upgrading from Windows 7 to 10.
Six years later, Canalys finds that the US commercial market for PCs experienced 4% year-over-year growth in Q2, “offsetting the more stagnant demand from consumers.” As a result, it still projects PC shipments to grow by 3% year-over-year through 2025. But Canalys isn’t confident about the demand materializing at retail stores and websites.
“Between persistent inflation and weak job reports in recent months, more consumers are exhibiting cautious spending, and premium electronics are not being prioritized as much as essentials like food and energy expenses,” Davis adds.
Although users can upgrade from Windows 10 to 11 for free, the newer OS has strict hardware requirements, which means some older PCs aren’t (officially) eligible for the upgrade. Microsoft has created two free ways for Windows 10 PCs to continue receiving extended security updates for an extra year.
The PC market, meanwhile, saw a spike in shipments in Q1 due to vendors trying to bring in inventory ahead of Trump’s potential tariffs on China. Companies have since been shifting their inventory out of China, while the White House has largely exempted PCs from such tariffs. As a result, Canalys reports that vendors have been working through their inventory build-up. But it’s betting the transition to Windows 11 will help drive more PC shipments into 2026.
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Meanwhile, research firm IDC also noticed a slowdown in PC demand in the US during Q2, attributing it to concerns about Trump’s tariffs.
In July, research firm Gartner also added: “The Windows 11 refresh cycle remains a key driver, particularly for desktop replacements. However, the expected surge in new device purchases has been subdued, as many organizations opt to update existing PCs to Windows 11 rather than invest in new hardware.”
Currently, Windows 10 has a 45% share of the Windows desktop market.
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