Mapping public opinion to drive climate action in India

India stands at a crossroads in its fight against climate change. As one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations and the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, India plays a dual role: both as a significant contributor to global emissions and as a key driver of the global energy transition. With its ambitious target of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 under the Paris Agreement and a renewable energy capacity goal of 500 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, India is positioning itself as a leader in shaping a sustainable future. Yet despite nearly doubling its wind and solar capacity to 135 GW over the past five years, critical mitigation and adaptation challenges remain that demand tailored, data-driven approaches to policy and action. Rising temperatures and extreme heat waves, unpredictable monsoons, and rising sea levels endanger millions, especially in coastal cities and rural farmlands. For a nation with 17 percent of the global population and only 4 percent of its freshwater, climate impacts threaten not just the environment but also food and water security, affecting the livelihoods of millions. Tackling these changes demands focused, data-driven actions, but in a diverse country like India, it is crucial to tailor efforts to each region’s specific needs.

Localized climate awareness through interactive mapping: A policy tool

Public opinion is pivotal for shaping climate policy. Awareness of climate risks can help accelerate the development and implementation of effective climate policy. A recent nationally representative survey reveals some surprising insights: Despite 82 percent of Indians believing in global warming (once it’s explained), only 10 percent feel informed about it and over half have little to no understanding of the concept. What is particularly worrying is that Indians’ awareness levels about climate change have barely changed since 2011, when the survey was first conducted as part of our studies.

National surveys only provide a single number, however, to characterize the opinions of an entire country. Recent advances in statistical modeling now allow us to pool survey data from local areas and pair it with relevant geographic, census, and environmental data to construct accurate estimates of climate change opinions for subnational administrative areas. Using this approach, we mapped climate opinions across the country, and found that the knowledge gap about climate change varies widely by region (see figure 1). For example, the western state of Gujarat shows greater climate awareness compared to its southern neighbor Maharashtra, with the understanding ranging between 52 percent and 33 percent, respectively. Likewise, about half the residents in the southern state of Tamil Nadu say they “know something” or “a lot” about global warming, while only 31 percent feel knowledgeable in neighboring Andhra Pradesh. These differences present opportunities to increase local support for climate initiatives, especially in states where awareness lags.

Figure 1: Knowledge about global warming

Public opinion maps are powerful tools for bridging these knowledge gaps. The interactive version of the India climate opinion maps show variations in public beliefs and attitudes across thirty-four of India’s thirty-six states and union territories and in 604 districts. These maps aren’t just diagnostic: By exactly identifying where knowledge is low, these maps enable policymakers and technologists to align awareness campaigns with regional needs, fostering a stronger foundation for climate action.

Imagine Maharashtra, where awareness is lower, having more support for climate action at the grassroots level. This could make local adaptation efforts—like water conservation or heat wave preparedness—more successful because the public better understands the urgency. Extreme heat is one of the most direct and widespread threats to human health from climate change, and these risks cascade to economic sectors through reduced labor productivity, decreased crop yields, and increased energy demands for cooling, straining infrastructure and resources, and exacerbating income inequality. Recent heat waves, intensified by global warming, have killed many thousands of people around the world, and yet most heat-related deaths are preventable with appropriate preparation. Many members of the public do not adequately understand the risks associated with extreme heat, however, and many are unprepared, underscoring the characterization of heat waves as “silent killers.”

Turning data into action: Targeting interventions with technology

Interactive maps based on scientific public opinion surveys do more than illustrate what people know—they guide real, on-the-ground actions to address specific regional risks. Take Bihar, a state in eastern India, for instance, where 74 percent of residents expect more severe heat waves in the coming years. This awareness has driven the state to create an early warning system and use mass texts to send heat advisories to millions. However, in regions with limited technological access, low-tech community-based solutions remain critical. Localized data about awareness levels can help identify these more vulnerable populations and inform tailored interventions. For example, Bihar’s Heat Action Plan (HAP) includes drum-based village announcements, ensuring even the most remote populations are better prepared.

Figure 2: Perceptions of severe heat waves

But there’s still room to grow. Also in Bihar, a state with high solar insolation levels, the installed solar capacity reached approximately 193 MW in 2023, reflecting steady growth in this area. But while 59 percent here believe India should rely more on renewable energy, many don’t yet connect extreme heat with fossil fuel use (figures 2 and 3). And solar adoption here is slower compared to neighboring states like Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand, which have both set ambitious solar installation targets and have slightly higher public support for renewables (62 percent and 63 percent, respectively). Closing these gaps with targeted information could shift behaviors and foster broader support for sustainable practices. This is where region-specific insights can make a huge difference—not just in preparing for immediate risks but also in encouraging lasting climate resilience.

Bridging knowledge gaps for real climate action

India’s linguistic and cultural diversity adds complexity to its climate strategies. At least twenty-two major languages are spoken across the country, and thousands of regional publications inform the public. Yet many media outlets, both English and regional, miss the chance to connect climate events like heat waves directly to climate change. Only about 10 percent of media articles covering the 2022 record-breaking heat waves also mentioned climate change. By understanding what different communities believe and know, journalists, educators, and activists can tailor messages that resonate locally, bringing climate awareness directly into people’s lives.

This is where data equity comes into play. Making climate data accessible and relevant to communities is essential to ensure that everyone—from rural villages to crowded cities—can understand and act on it. Empowering people with accurate, actionable information is key to building a resilient society that is prepared to handle the challenges ahead.

India’s twenty-eight states and eight union territories each have distinct identities and approaches to climate action. Backed by a clear National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and with tailored State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs) in place, regional governments play a major role in addressing their specific challenges. Public opinion data offer a unique opportunity for each state to adapt its strategies to local concerns, making climate policies more effective and sustainable. For example, states with higher awareness, like Gujarat, can attract investments and public-private partnerships in clean energy technology, while states with lower awareness might prioritize educational programs alongside infrastructure projects. Companies like ReNew Power and Tata Power, for example, are helping to drive renewable energy adoption and smart grid integration across India. Pursuing these kinds of collaborations with a greater awareness of how district-level opinions vary can help accelerate local climate action and ensure that each region’s unique needs and perspectives shape its climate approach.

Figure 3: Perceptions of fossil fuels and renewable energy

Localized climate insights can power the changes that India needs, accelerating the shift to clean energy and building resilience against climate impacts. However, current policies—like fossil fuel subsidies and price caps —present significant challenges. These measures, while aimed at shielding low-income households from rising energy costs, often lock in dependence on fossil fuels and divert resources away from renewable investments. For example, fossil fuel subsidies in India still outweigh subsidies for renewables, undermining the economic incentives for a clean energy transition.

Public opinion surveys provide a valuable opportunity to address these misalignments by demonstrating that support for renewable energy is strong, even in states with significant fossil fuel reliance (figure 3). By leveraging localized public opinion data, India can reframe subsidy reforms as not only economically prudent but also widely supported by the public. By better aligning policies with both national and regional data, India can ensure that efforts to reduce emissions and prepare for climate impacts reflect the voices of its people.

The future of climate resilience in India depends on both bridging the gap between data and action through enabling renewable energy technologies and gaining greater awareness of public understanding about climate change causes and solutions. When interactive maps and survey data are accessible and used to guide local strategies, they become invaluable tools. Scaling models using insights from localized data can transform regional adaptation strategies, including the deployment of clean technologies and renewable energy solutions; this can be done by aligning public knowledge with practical policy initiatives such as job training for the renewable energy industry, which also has widespread support (figure 4). Emphasizing technology-driven, equitable access ensures interventions resonate with India’s diverse population.

Figure 4: Perceptions on national training programs

By building awareness of public opinion among diverse stakeholders and reflecting the insights from the data back to the public, policymakers build trust and alignment in decision-making. This approach allows everyone—from local communities to state governments to national policymakers—to have confidence in collective efforts that aim to tackle climate change head-on. By building a common sense of purpose, India can catalyze the testing and scaling of technology-based interventions to achieve its long-term strategic goal of becoming a vishwa guru, a global leader in climate action.

Jennifer Marlon is a senior research scientist at the Yale School of the Environment and the executive director of the Yale Center for Geospatial Solutions.

Jagadish Thaker (JT) is a senior lecturer at the University of Queensland and research associate at the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

The GeoTech Center champions positive paths forward that societies can pursue to ensure new technologies and data empower people, prosperity, and peace.

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