The first games of the 2024 MLB Wild Card series were a tale of underdogs beating the odds. Three of four series saw their odds flip on Tuesday night.
The Detroit Tigers went from +155 underdogs to -175 favorites after beating the Houston Astros 3-1. The Kansas City Royals had a close game against Baltimore but kept the Orioles scoreless with a 1-0 victory, which moved the Royals’ odds from +145 to -225. The New York Mets had the most decisive Game 1 among the underdogs, with an 8-4 win over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Mets are now -300 to win the series, a significant shift from +115 before Game 1.
The only favorite that actually won on Tuesday was the San Diego Padres in the last game of the day. They took a decisive 4-0 win over the Atlanta Braves and are now the strongest favorites across all four Wild Card series at -400 to make it to the next round. The Braves couldn’t use their lefty Chris Sale in Game 1, as he is dealing with back issues.
Looking to the second day of the Wild Card round, the concern for the Tigers is that they’ve already played their ace of aces, Tarik Skubal. He was key for a Game 1 win, but can they keep it up? Oddsmakers seem nervous, with the Astros favored to win Game 2 and the series odds not far from even. The Orioles, too, are favored in Game 2 even if they’re now officially the underdogs for the series.
The Mets vs. Brewers odds are even for Game 2 as of late Tuesday night with Sean Manaea on the mound. The Padres are only slight favorites for Game 2 against the Braves, who will have Max Fried on the mound and a little bit more rest since their doubleheader on Monday.
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Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
Series odds: Tigers (-175), Astros (+145)
Series record: Tigers lead 1-0
Game 2 pitching matchup: Tyler Holton vs. Hunter Brown
How to watch Tigers at Astros
- Venue: Minute Maid Park — Houston
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
Series odds: Royals (-225), Orioles (+180)
Series record: Royals lead 1-0
Game 2 pitching matchup: Seth Lugo vs. Zach Eflin
How to watch Royals at Orioles
- Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — Baltimore
- Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds
Series odds: Mets (-300), Brewers (+240)
Series record: Mets lead 1-0
Game 2 pitching matchup: Sean Manaea vs. Frankie Montas
How to watch Mets at Brewers
- Venue: American Family Field — Milwaukee
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds
Series odds: Braves (+310), Padres (-400)
Series record: Padres lead 1-0
Game 2 pitching matchup: Max Fried vs. Joe Musgrove
How to watch Braves at Padres
- Venue: Petco Park — San Diego
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
MLB game projections from THE BAT X
In the tables below, you’ll see details for each MLB matchup, then a lot of numbers (which are updated all day):
- “Moneyline” shows each team’s odds on BetMGM.
- “Implied Win%” is the chance a team has to win based on those BetMGM odds.
- “THE BAT X win%” is the chance a team has to win based on EV Analytics’ projections.
- “Cash Line” is how THE BAT X would price each team’s odds.
- “Value” is the percentage difference between the odds chances and our projections.
The higher the value percentage, the better — which you can easily see from the color coding from red (bad pick) through to green (good pick).
Note: On mobile, you may have to scroll to see the color-coded “Value” column on the far right of the first set of tables.
Another note: If you’re seeing old data or the tables aren’t showing up, you may need to “hard refresh” this page, or you may have an ad blocker or other software blocking the tables from loading.
(Photo of Cedric Mullins: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)
