Moneyline choices for this week’s games

The Baltimore Ravens will deny the Pittsburgh Steelers’ bid to capture the AFC North in Week 16. At least that’s what our six-member panel thinks will happen Saturday afternoon in Maryland.

The NFL’s annual crawl to Saturdays begins this weekend with a pair of crucial AFC matchups. The Houston Texans will look to prove they can hang with the big boys despite a disappointing 2024 as they face a stumbling Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s just a taste of an intense celebration of AFC North hatred between two teams that have captured the division’s sixth title for the past eight years.

That’s not the only game this week that will have major implications for the playoffs. Let’s take a look at the schedule and try to pick some winners.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 will be a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, who is on a 41-4 heater, and Meghan Hall). Here are our picks from week 15:

And:

Because our editing software occasionally has trouble making these choices super clear, here they are in an easier-to-read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let’s discuss three games to talk about.

Tim Heitman-Imagn images

Why I like this choice:

Nick Chubb is injured and Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the Browns’ quarterback. Joe Burrow continues to play at an MVP level even though there is no chance of him winning the award. Cincinnati has scored at least 27 points in each of the last six games (34 points per game in that stretch).

Why I don’t like this choice:

The Bengals have made it a point not to make things easy in 2024. Their soft passing defense is the perfect place for a flawed young quarterback to make an emergency landing. Cincinnati’s offensive line allows pressure at a rate 33 percent higher than when it’s blitzed, meaning Myles Garrett could run wild. Cleveland has generally shown up for AFC North games this season

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 12-3 (.800)

Troy Taormina-Imagn images

Why I like this choice:

The Dolphins have an eight percent chance of making the playoffs, compared to the 49ers <1 percent (they are one Rams win – any Rams win – away from elimination). That makes this a more important play for Tua Tagovailoa than it is for Brock Purdy, aside from Purdy's looming contract extension. Tagovailoa is 4-0 against teams with losing records this season and has generally taken care of business at home, where he has a 104.3 passer rating.

Why I don’t like this choice:

The Niners are not built like the other losing teams Tagovailoa has defeated in 2024. Purdy won’t have to deal with the same weather-related issues that limited him in Week 15. The Dolphins have only an average passing defense, which creates a launching pad for Kyle Shanahan looking to build momentum to close out his season.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 9-6 (.600)

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

The Chargers are approaching a crisis point at 8-6. Their spot in the playoffs is largely secure, but Los Angeles needs a win to avoid a three-game losing streak. Now it gets to throw the league’s best scoring defense against a freshman quarterback. Granted, that unit just got thoroughly torched by Baker Mayfield, but Bo Nix is ​​not Baker Mayfield (derogatory).

Herbert, despite his shortcomings, remains very good. The Broncos, despite their first winning record in seven years, remain prone to days when their offense simply doesn’t show up (five games of 16 points or fewer this season). That includes a 23-16 home loss to the Chargers in October.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 5-10 (.333)