Despite a recent 15% bump, following positive Q3 2025 results and a stunt that brought it tariff relief, Apple’s stock is still 5% in the red for the year. But in a recently published investor note, Morgan Stanley says it believes momentum will keep shifting.
In the note (via CNBC), analyst Erik Woodring said that “the Apple story could be turning the corner.” This comes after the bank’s China team recently raised its iPhone build forecast for the September quarter by 8%, which in turn came after June sales proved stronger than expected.
Here’s Woodring:
“These positive revisions are a result of better than expected iPhone sell-through in the June quarter, which reduced iPhone channel inventory below normalized levels, and thus created a larger channel fill opportunity in the September quarter, as the positive build revision is entirely iPhone 16 (2M units) and Pro Max (2M units) models.”
While Morgan Stanley says its revised forecast already bakes in this build increase, it says there is potential for further upside in the December quarter.
The firm is currently modeling 78 million units for the holiday season, but says that number could be adjusted up, especially if early demand for iPhone 17 beats expectations.
Apple Intelligence fumble may drive sales down the line
Looking beyond hardware, Morgan Stanley believes several other factors are being overlooked, including a potential AI partnership or acquisition, and the delayed rollout of Apple Intelligence. They say this could eventually drive renewed interest in both iPhones and services, once flagship features like the revamped Siri land next year.
“In our view, Apple is one potential AI partnership away from breaking out,” Woodring wrote.
Woodring also downplayed the impact of regulation in the short term, and noted that Section 232 tariffs, which were once a key risk factor, proved a “non-event.”
Do you think a broader Apple Intelligence rollout will drive iPhone sales? Let us know in the comments.
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