First the Ukrainian military intelligence reported, then the Pentagon, and finally a series of videos appeared. The North Korean troops officially entered combat and the first casualties occurred (in the last few hours there is talk of hundreds). After the news, a question remains in the air: what does Pyongyang really gain by lending its aid to Russia and entering into the conflict with Ukraine? The answer possibly has many edges, but there are known data and facts that give an idea of the scope of this “alliance” with the Kremlin. Also from a nation that watches every step with a frown: China.
Historical context and unprecedented decision. For the first time in its history, North Korea has deployed troops abroad, sending special units to support Russia in the Ukraine war. The decision breaks with the regime’s tradition of keeping its soldiers in national territory to prevent them from adopting “incorrect” ideas when exposed to other societies.
This fear, furthermore, is not unfounded, since in 1992 the country faced an attempted military coup organized by officers who had studied in Moscow during perestroika. Even so, Kim Jong-un, with a pragmatic rather than ideological foreign policy, has decided to take the risk in search of strategic and economic benefits.
Reasons to enter. Several acquaintances, and some we have been counting these months. Sending troops can be understood as a long-term investment to strengthen ties with Russia and aspire to a return to the relationship of mutual support that existed during the Cold War. Although Pyongyang already receives oil in excess of what is legal (the BBC uncovered the modus operandi), food and money as payment for its ammunition supplies, it also seeks to ensure a continuous flow of resources and the possibility of accessing advanced nuclear and aviation technologies. , although this case has more edges, since Moscow seems reluctant to share them, at least for now.
Furthermore, we cannot ignore that, with an economy weakened by international sanctions and the impact of the pandemic, North Korea sees in this alliance an opportunity to obtain foreign currency by sending workers and troops, as well as access to crude oil and other vital resources. By sending North Korean soldiers, in addition, Russia can free up reserve troops for other fronts, which could have a significant impact on strategic areas of the conflict. According to the New York Times, North Korea has reportedly obtained up to $5.5 billion in arms deals so far, tested its KN-23 and KN-24 missiles, evaluated their performance against Western defense systems and adopted modern innovations, such as the use of drones.
Challenges on the ground. The first leg to deal with will surely be the one related to the command structure. In this regard, the chain in the North Korean military prioritizes the prevention of military coups over operational effectiveness. This includes bureaucratic decision-making that requires approval from multiple levels, which could make it difficult to perform in a dynamic combat environment like Ukraine.
Furthermore, and as we said yesterday, North Korean troops lack experience in modern conflicts, especially against technologies such as drones, widely used in Ukraine. Plus, and just as important: the language barrier could complicate coordination with Russian forces as is already happening. Ultimately, exposing soldiers to a freer, more developed environment could increase the risk of defections, a constant fear for Pyongyang.
Geopolitical implications: China. While China may tolerate North Korean intervention as it helps avoid a Russian defeat, Beijing does not appear to accept Russia providing Pyongyang with advanced nuclear technology, as this could destabilize the region. On the other hand, South Korea fears that this military alliance will facilitate North Korea’s access to technologies that could eventually be used against Seoul.
Not only that. The deployment of troops and economic cooperation with Moscow could strain relations with China, its historical and main trading partner and ally, and increase international pressure. Put another way, strategic dependence on Moscow may limit Kim’s ability to balance both relationships and compromise his diplomatic autonomy.
The future of the alliance. Thus, while the alliance allows North Korea to gain time and resources, it also raises questions about its sustainability. Russia, although a crucial partner in the short term, accounts for less than 2% of North Korea’s international trade, while China remains responsible for more than 90%.
The numbers in that regard are quite clear, and this economic dependence on Beijing, combined with the risks inherent in its military partnership with Russia, leaves Pyongyang in a precarious and most uncertain position. At stake: maintaining the support of its allies without compromising its national security or its economy.
Imagen | Presidential Executive Office of Russia
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