Throughout 2023, and presumably so far into 2024, the Chinese military, Chinese state-controlled artificial intelligence (AI) research centers, and universities have purchased cutting-edge semiconductors whose export to China was expressly prohibited by the sanctions approved by the US Government.
For the US and its allies, it is materially impossible to guarantee that the cutting-edge semiconductors controlled by the bans will not reach the country led by Xi Jinping. In fact, as we have just seen, they are coming. However, the data we have reflects that they are landing with difficulty and in quantities lower than what China presumably needs to sustain the development of both its scientific research in the field of AI and to guarantee innovation in the field of its military capacity. .
Intermediaries are China’s best allies
Sanctions are effective to the extent that they are an instrument that allows the US Administration to control the export of goods whose distribution it needs to supervise, but the Chinese Government and companies in this gigantic Asian country can resort to parallel import channels to get what they need. That is precisely what they are doing. A priori, India seemed to be the main gateway to China for the integrated circuits banned by the US, but now we know that several Southeast Asian countries are responsible.
Singapore and Malaysia are the main centers for smuggling AI chips to China
This is, at least, what the US Department of Commerce suspects, which is in charge, among other tasks, of ensuring compliance with the prohibitions. According to SCMP, Singapore and Malaysia are the main centers of smuggling of AI chips to China. This is precisely what worries the US, and it is going to take measures to remedy it. Gina Raimondo, the US Secretary of Commerce, and Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, are leading the preparation of a new sanctions package aimed specifically at the countries I have mentioned in this paragraph, and perhaps a few more.
The objective of these bans is to prevent countries that act as intermediaries and facilitate the arrival of cutting-edge GPUs for AI in China from continuing to support the country led by Xi Jinping. Furthermore, presumably these sanctions are going to come into effect soon. Before December ends.
If so, the US will have deployed within a month two packages of bans extraordinarily ambitious, if we keep in mind that on December 2, what we mistakenly considered at that time to be the “final fireworks” of the Joe Biden Administration came into force. China responded soon after, and will surely do so again when the next bans come.
Image | ASML
More information | SCMP
In WorldOfSoftware | The US will not be able to contain China’s technological development. Chip industry experts predict it
