It was another successful year for SpaceX’s Starlink. The satellite internet service doubled in size to nearly 5 million customers, launched a portable Mini dish, and secured regulatory approval to commence a Starlink service for mobile phones.
These advancements have set the stage for an even more successful 2025. The upcoming Starship rocket, a next-gen V3 satellite, and a friendly White House could help Starlink push new boundaries. Might a Republican-led FCC fast-track a plan to offer gigabit satellite internet? And could SpaceX offer more discounts to spur continued growth in the US? We spoke with three satellite industry analysts about the opportunities and challenges facing Starlink next year.
Starship on the Horizon
(Photo by CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images)
An October test flight saw SpaceX’s Starship catch a booster rocket during the landing phase, overcoming a major hurdle to making the world’s most powerful rocket a reusable vehicle.
Starship is crucial for Starlink’s success because it can carry heavier, next-gen V3 satellites, says Caleb Henry, research director at Quilty Space. “My expectation is that when the V3 satellites launch, they will be even more capable and will result in a large jump in capacity,” he says.
According to a regulatory filing, V3 satellites could weigh up to 2,000 kilograms (4,409 pounds)—or more than double the size of previous Starlink satellites. Although they will probably be smaller than 2,000kg, Henry says the size increase signals that SpaceX is planning ambitious upgrades.
This could translate to gigabit internet speeds, which SpaceX teased last month. More satellites are also needed to handle a growing user base. Starlink traffic has been tripling on a global basis, forcing SpaceX to resurrect a waitlist in certain cities in the US, Canada, Mexico, and UK.
But a major question is when Starship will go beyond test flights. “If that takes longer than expected, it’ll force further changes to Starlink’s rollout plan,” Henry says. For now, SpaceX has said the next test flight for Starship could happen on Jan. 11.
Meanwhile, satellite industry analyst Tim Farrar says SpaceX might prioritize Starship’s goal of reaching the Moon over Starlink deployments. “President Trump has got this expectation that there’s going to be this spectacular landing on the Moon by 2028, and I don’t think Elon Musk wants to disappoint,” he says.
More Discounts for US Customers?
(Credit: Brian Westover/PCMag)
Starlink is a godsend for those in remote areas, but that access doesn’t come cheap. The dish can cost up to $599 with monthly service around $120. SpaceX has experimented with region-specific discounts, however, and Farrar expects that to continue in 2025.
He points to a Texas facility dedicated to manufacturing Starlink dishes that’s been expanding, and reportedly has the capacity to churn out 4.6 million terminals annually. “If they are expanding the manufacturing, then the emphasis is going to be on selling a lot more broadband terminals through special offers and ads,” Farrar says. “I think we’ll see a continued effort to sell as many of those as possible over the next year. And that likely means price cuts.”
Starlink is bound to face demand in countries such as Indonesia, which got Starlink access in May, and India, where SpaceX is lobbying for a license. In some international markets, the company offers huge discounts, especially for the Mini dish. But in the US—the company’s most lucrative market—the tricky part will be attracting subscribers in areas with more robust competition.
“You’re going to run out of people willing to pay $120 per month,” Farrar says, which is currently the cheapest unlimited data plan for Starlink in the US.
It’s why he expects SpaceX to introduce more affordable, perhaps metered, plans in the US. It’s something the company itself has hinted at with mentions of a “residential lite” program. The cheaper plans could be paired with the standard Starlink dish, which Farrar says is more efficient at using satellite spectrum than the Mini dish.
In August, SpaceX told regulators it had over 1.4 million customers in the US. Farrar now estimates the number has since grown to 1.6 million to 1.7 million.
Early Days for Cellular Starlink
(Credit: KDDI)
SpaceX is also expanding through its “direct to cell” business, which will bring satellite connectivity to everyday phones, starting with T-Mobile users. SpaceX and its partners have hyped up the technology as a solution for cellular dead zones, a message that’ll carry over into 2025 as the company starts rolling out the cellular Starlink service in the US and elsewhere, such as Japan and New Zealand. This week, T-Mobile opened up sign-ups for beta testers.
But don’t expect cellular Starlink to turn into a major business just yet. Lluc Palerm, a research director at the consulting firm Analysys Mason, says the industry is still in “the early stages” of developing satellite services for phones. In SpaceX’s case, the cellular Starlink tech will be limited to supporting text messaging, although voice and data support will arrive over time.
“We forecast that the satellite messaging opportunity is limited in terms of the revenue,” he says. “It’s just a few hundred million dollars per year globally.” In contrast, Starlink’s main satellite internet business is expected to generate over $6 billion in 2024.
Still, the market for satellite-to-phone services is bound to grow when voice calls and internet browsing launch via Starlink’s direct-to-cell business and other rival companies. But in the US, SpaceX will need to first convince the US Federal Communications Commission to loosen rules on radio emission limits. Otherwise, the cellular Starlink service risks being restricted to text-based messaging, SpaceX told the commission in September. The regulatory fight has been contentious—with AT&T, Verizon, and European carriers opposing SpaceX’s request, and even threatening lawsuits if the FCC loosens the radio emission rules.
But in a win for the SpaceX, Musk has a major ally in President-elect Donald Trump, who is expected to roll back government regulations. “That’s the big question these days: To what extent will Elon Musk be able to influence not just the FCC, but also NASA,” Palerm says.
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Despite the perceived benefits, Palerm suggests the Musk-Trump partnership could be a double-edged sword. “I guess he will have a lot of influence. But he will also have a lot of eyes on what decisions are taken,” he adds. “It will be very easy to question any decisions that are made in favor of SpaceX.”
A Friendly Face at the FCC
(Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Trump has also appointed Republican Commissioner Brendan Carr—another Musk supporter— to lead the FCC. That bodes well for SpaceX when the FCC is expected to rule on several key issues involving Starlink, including the company’s request to operate over 22,000 new satellites and leverage even more radio bands to beam the space-based internet.
“Carr has been an advocate for treating satellite broadband as a viable tool to connect more Americans, and that may bear more weight in policy when the FCC has previously been more skewed toward fiber,” Henry says.
But Henry doesn’t expect any “wild changes” at the FCC. He notes that Carr was also an FCC commissioner under Ajit Pai during Trump’s first term. “Pai and Carr both championed this free market approach, letting these satellite constellations go online and not face barriers,” Henry says.
In a possible glimpse at how Carr will lead, he recently told reporters that it’s “unlikely” the FCC will revisit its decision in 2022 to deny $886 million in subsidies to Starlink as a way to supply high-speed internet to rural residents. That’s surprising since Carr has long blasted the FCC’s decision to reject the funding. But according to Reuters, Carr has “cited procedural grounds because [Starlink parent] SpaceX had not sought further appeal or reconsideration.”
Carr has also written about what the FCC should prioritize in the Project 2025 blueprint for a Republican presidency. According to him, a major goal should be advancing America’s leadership in space. But interestingly, he names both Starlink and Amazon’s Project Kuiper as two next-generation technologies the FCC should support by expediting satellite approvals.
The statement suggests Carr plans on supporting all satellite internet players, rather than merely SpaceX. But his stance could be tested down the line. Project Kuiper is eyeing kicking off a beta service next year once it launches its first satellites. The problem is that Amazon is facing an FCC deadline to launch half of the planned constellation by July 2026. If it doesn’t, the company risks losing the satellite license, although Amazon could file for an extension.
“I think generally the FCC would like to see competition here,” Farrar says. “But on the other hand, I think Starlink is an awfully long way ahead. The tension is between market competition and holding back a clearly advancing and faster competitor. That’ll be a difficult balancing act for the FCC.”
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About Michael Kan
Senior Reporter
