The Russian air force is now much more dangerous than before it invaded Ukraine, air force experts warn

• The Russian air force has become more capable during the war in Ukraine, air force experts say.

• They claim it now poses a greater threat to NATO than before the war.

• Pilots are more experienced, losses are replaced and systems are improved.

Russia’s air force has become far more dangerous and poses a greater threat to the NATO alliance than before the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, air combat experts warn.

Russia’s war in Ukraine provided its pilots with combat experience and lessons in modern warfare. Russia has also upgraded systems and weapons and produced more aircraft than it has lost, increasing its overall end strength.

Justin Bronk, an air force expert at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute think tank, claimed in a recent report that Russia’s air force “poses a greater threat to Western air capabilities in Europe than it did before the invasion of Ukraine.”

NATO must ensure it has improved its view of Russia’s air force, retired US Army Major General Gordon “Skip” Davis, who served as deputy assistant secretary general of NATO’s Defense Investment Division, told Business Insider. “NATO cannot be complacent with what it thought Russia once was as an air force compared to what it is today.”

He said: “Russia is more dangerous to NATO now than before the war because of the lessons learned.”

Bronk said Russia’s performance in Ukraine – including its early failure to achieve air superiority and significant aircraft losses – has led many NATO policymakers and military observers to downgrade the threat posed by its air force, the VKS.

But that’s a mistake, he said, because “in many ways the VKS of 2025 is a significantly more capable potential threat to Western air power than it is in 2022.”

The Russian fleet has grown

Russia has lost many aircraft due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. About 130 Russian fixed-wing aircraft were shot down or severely damaged in the fighting, Bronk said, noting that his estimates are based on interviews with Western air forces and ministries, data from the Ukrainian armed forces and open source information.

But he said the impact of those losses is not as strong as the numbers suggest.

The types of Russian aircraft that suffered the greatest losses – aircraft like the Su-25SM(3) and Su-34(M), about 40 each – are of little use to Russia in a conflict with NATO. And new production has resulted in the expansion of the entire Russian fleet.

Russia has been able to produce more of its Su-35S, Su-34s and Su-30SM(2) aircraft than were lost in the war, Bronk said, and deliveries of other aircraft types have also continued.

Russia has largely kept some of its best aircraft out of combat, as well as some of its better weapons.

Bronk told Business Insider that the point “is not to downplay the attrition that Russian forces have suffered in Ukraine.” However, he said that “many of the areas where Russian forces are really exhausted are not particularly relevant to us in that fight.”

The Russian pilots have improved

The Russian crew, including the pilots, “also became significantly more capable during the war,” Bronk said. Although Russia has lost experienced crew members, it has lost far fewer pilots than fighter jets. Skilled pilots are harder to replace in any air force.

And any losses of capable crews have been “more than offset” by the additional flying time and combat experience that war fighting in Ukraine provides, Broke added.

For a long time, Russian pilots generally flew much less than their NATO counterparts, but Ukraine has provided years of valuable combat experience.

“In most cases, they have greatly improved the experience of both pilots and crew members in high-intensity combat and warfare,” Davis said. Bronk noted that they have also become better at air-to-air combat against both drones and aircraft.

Russia has more offensive power

Russia has also upgraded its weapons in ways that would make it a greater threat. By early 2022, Bronk said, Russia “would have struggled to deploy effective battlefield firepower at scale due to insufficient weapons options, a lack of targeting pods and poor close air support training. This is no longer the case.”

Tim Robinson, a military aviation specialist at Britain’s Royal Aeronautical Society, told Business Insider that “they’re doing things smarter: better tactics, new weapons.”

The Russian Air Force, for example, is arming its Su-35 jets with longer-range R-37M missiles, which Bronk said have “contributed significantly to increasing the threat they could theoretically pose to NATO air operations.

Russia has also developed airborne capabilities, from missiles to hover bombs, which not only complicate air defense but also allow the country to strike from relatively safe positions. It’s a problem in Ukraine.

Robinson said being able to fire precision weapons without entering Ukrainian airspace “is an example of improving their tactics and improving their ammunition and technology.”

In a possible future war, Bronk said, NATO forces on the front lines could be intensively bombarded with glide bombs, without Russian aircraft having to risk flying outside the protection of air defenses on the ground.

The Russian defense is more formidable

Russia’s already formidable air defense arsenal, on which its air force is partially dependent, could also now pose a greater threat to NATO forces than before the war.

Ukraine has managed to damage and destroy a large number of them, but Bronk warned that “several hundred batteries of various Russian surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems remain in service, and the primary threat systems are also all still in production in their latest variants.”

The Russian experience has also made the country more effective in using its systems to shoot down Ukrainian planes and drones, and it has upgraded its systems with new hardware and software.

“Russian SAM systems not only remain numerous, but are likely to perform better against NATO aircraft and munitions in a hypothetical direct conflict than before 2022,” Bronk said.

Russian forces have also shown improvement in coordinating the use of their aircraft and missile systems on the ground, Bronk said. This means a more coordinated threat to NATO aircraft if a direct conflict were to arise.

But in battle, as the Pentagon likes to say, the enemy gets a voice. While Russia may be more threatening than it once was, NATO’s military is heavily armed with proven equipment managed by experienced operators.

Russia does not outrank NATO, Bronk said, but “rather they pose a credible threat.”

He predicted that Russia would still “struggle significantly in a direct air-to-air clash with Western forces. I think they would come off pretty badly.” But the problem is that the fight isn’t just up in the air; it would also have the power and effect of air defense on the ground.

U.S. and Western officials have said that Russia’s fighting style and formidable defenses show that the West may not be able to gain control of the air in a future full-scale war, which would make combat more difficult and risky for aircraft and potentially drag Western forces into an attritional battle — the Russian way of waging war.

Russia still has many problems, including a rigid command structure that limits flexibility and adaptation, and limitations on the Western technology it can access to build advanced systems.

And NATO has learned a lot from the war, for example from Ukraine, by obtaining more accurate data on Russia’s surface-to-air missile systems, including their strengths and weaknesses, than before 2022, Bronk said. NATO, he added, has the right weapons to counter them, “although not yet in sufficient numbers in Europe.”

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