The tensions between Venezuela and the United States have entered a phase of acceleration that is reminiscent, in its form and atmosphere, of something very different from any other operation against drug trafficking and more like the previous moments of a major crisis. Certainly not an ordinary diplomatic dispute.
An oil tanker and the arrival of a battalion predict a scenario of conflict.
Venezuela, the US and a shadow. The seizure of the oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast (justified from Washington as a legal act against sanctioned crude oil trafficking and denounced by Caracas as “international piracy”) has functioned as a starting shot for a spiral that had been brewing for months.
That said, the real turning point, the one that marks a qualitative leap in the US posture, is the arrival in Puerto Rico of an almost complete contingent of EA-18G Growlers, electronic warfare aircraft with no equivalent in the region and whose presence is rarely associated with simple training missions or routine deterrence. Venezuela, going through its own political earthquakes following the disputed 2024 election and domestic and international pressure against Maduro, now finds itself staring at a board on which American moves, for the first time since the 1962 crisis, suggest something more than a message: they suggest preparation.
The Growler as an omen. They reported this morning on TWZ that the EA-18G Growler deployed at the reactivated Roosevelt Roads base, in Puerto Rico, are a first-rate technical and doctrinal indicator. They are not planes of symbolic presence nor devices suitable for anti-drug patrols. Its mission is different: penetrate the enemy electromagnetic spectrum, suppress air defenses, blind radars, cut communications and open corridors for deeper operations.
In an environment like Venezuela, where Russian defense systems of different origins (including Buk-M2, Pechora-2M and S-300VM) make up a complex framework, the presence of Growlers is the logical prelude to any action that seeks to neutralize anti-aircraft capabilities and prepare the space for precision attacks, insertion of special forces or rescues in hostile territory.
And much more. The analysts also recalled that the mix of ALQ-99 pods and the new NGJ-MB, capable of updating software and modulating AESA antennas to counter evolving threats, indicates that what is deployed in the Caribbean is not an improvised reinforcement, but a cell specialized in modern electronic warfare.
The region, accustomed to sporadic naval deployments or exercises, had not seen such an unequivocal sign of operational readiness since the most tense years of the Cold War.
The hit of the tanker. The boarding operation of the oil tanker Skipper (with Navy helicopters dropping equipment on its deck, official footage broadcast almost in real time, and statements by Trump calling it the largest seizure ever made) is not an isolated event. It is a global political message that combines judicial pressure with military demonstration.
Venezuela interprets it as a direct aggression and a violation of its sovereignty, and Washington exposes it as part of an international network of sanctions against Venezuelan and Iranian oil. In both cases, the effect is clear: the tacit containment threshold that existed until now has been broken. For Maduro, who urges the population to become “warriors,” the episode serves as a narrative tool to reinforce his internal legitimacy and denounce the US desire to appropriate the country’s resources. For the United States, the message is the opposite: the era of tolerance for sanctioned oil networks is over, and any maritime intermediation will be treated as a legitimate objective.
In other words, the clash is frontal, symbolic and strategic.
Aerial choreography. Recent flights of F/A-18 Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers circling over the Gulf of Venezuela complete the new military landscape. They were not timid raids or simple patrols: they came within 20 nautical miles of the coast and acted with flight patterns designed to test, provoke and record reactions. The F/A-18 operated with the callsign RHINO, while the Growler, under the name GRIZZLY2, carried out loops aimed at capturing signals, searching for active radars and mapping possible defense nodes.
Experts like Greg Bagwell told the BBC that it is a classic intelligence operation prior to an intervention scenario or, at the very least, a warning that the United States can degrade Venezuelan defenses at will. Venezuela, aware that every electronic emission, every activated radar and every radio response can be recorded, analyzed and exploited, faces simultaneous psychological and technical pressure: any movement reveals useful information for an adversary that dominates the electromagnetic spectrum.
Massive deployment. Plus: the presence in the Caribbean of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest aircraft carrier in the world, along with B-52 and B-1 strategic bombers that have skirted the Venezuelan coast in recent months, makes up a military device that cannot be interpreted as mere symbolic deterrence. As we said, the reactivation of Roosevelt Roads (closed since 2004) and its use for F-35 operations confirms that the American return to the Caribbean responds to a longer-term strategic design.
With some 15,000 troops deployed, special forces in rotation, ships of various types and capacities and a constant flow of tactical aircraft, the US military structure in the region increasingly resembles a platform prepared for multiple options: from specific attacks to prolonged pressure operations, including the total interdiction of Venezuelan oil trade.
The political factor. There is no doubt, the military tension is intertwined with an internal political crisis in Venezuela that has further eroded the legitimacy of the regime. While Maduro denounces attacks and invokes resistance, the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to María Corina Machado symbolizes the international recognition of the Venezuelan opposition and its demand for a democratic transition.
The United States, for its part, maintains a reward of 50 million dollars on Maduro, has intensified accusations of links with the Cartel of the Suns and has multiplied lethal operations against vessels supposedly linked to drug trafficking. In this climate, any additional step (such as a total oil blockade, described by analysts as an act of war) could precipitate an unexpected reconfiguration of the internal and regional balance.
A game where the United States affirms that Maduro has “his days numbered.” Venezuela promises to resist “like warriors.” And the Caribbean, full of electronic signals, naval convoys and shadows of planes on the sea, once again becomes the scene where a political dispute can transform into a strategic crisis on a hemispheric scale.
Imagen | USAF/STAFF SGT. GERALD WILLIS, Air National Guard
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