COFFEE lovers are set to pay more for their favorite drinks this year.
While the cost uptick may not yet be seen, some economists predict consumers will start seeing the effects later in 2025.
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As with several other goods and services, coffee is set to be impacted in the United States as part of President Donald Trump’s recent “reciprocal” tariff policies.
That’s because the United States barely produces its own coffee.
Hawaii is the prominent domestic source of both coffee and cocoa beans, per the Financial Times.
Not only that, but the US remains the “single largest importer of coffee in the world,” according to Kona Haque, research head at commodity trader ED&F Man.
Haque noted that the States is the “ultimate nation of coffee drinkers,” meaning tariffs on coffee-related imports would make Americans face the consequences.
Specifically, the cost of green coffee to roasters would “immediately” increase, which Haque says will almost “inevitably” be passed to consumers.
“At the end of the day, chocolate and coffee are not like automotive or shipbuilding, which Trump is trying to encourage more domestic production of,” she explained to the publication.
“The USA simply cannot produce these products.”
DEMAND TOO HIGH
The concerns were further echoed by Lucrezia Colgliati, a commodities analyst for Fitch Solutions.
“We believe that the recent announcement of US reciprocal tariffs will raise domestic coffee prices as the United States relies almost entirely on coffee imports to meet domestic demand, producing around 0.2 percent of the coffee it consumes,” Colgliati told FT.
The analyst also argued that the domestic production of coffee in the United States would not feasibly meet the demand.
“As production of coffee in the US is essentially non-existent, we believe that increased tariffs will not boost domestic production but rather will translate into higher consumer prices, which could ultimately weigh on demand,” she added.
Coffee prices are already high at independent houses and chains like Starbucks globally due to poor weather conditions in regions like Brazil among other factors.
With tariffs on imports from Ivory Coast and Ecuador, this is expected to only make things worse price-wise.
President Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs
President Trump unveiled his reciprocal tariff plan on countries worldwide on April 2, which he declared as “Liberation Day.”
Reciprocal tariffs per country, which includes the 10% baseline fee:
- China: charges the US 67% tariffs, the US will counter with 34% reciprocal tariffs.
- European Union: charges the US 39% tariffs, the US will counter with 20% reciprocal tariffs.
- Vietnam: charges the US 90% tariffs, the US will counter with 46% reciprocal tariffs.
- Taiwan: charges the US 64% tariffs, the US will counter with 32% reciprocal tariffs.
- Japan: charges the US 46% tariffs, the US will counter with 24% reciprocal tariffs.
- India: charges the US 52% tariffs, the US will counter with 26% reciprocal tariffs.
- South Korea: charges the US 50% tariffs, the US will counter with 25% reciprocal tariffs.
- Thailand: charges the US 72% tariffs, the US will counter with 36% reciprocal tariffs.
- Switzerland: charges the US 61% tariffs, the US will counter with 31% reciprocal tariffs.
- Indonesia: charges the US 61% tariffs, the US will counter with 32% reciprocal tariffs.
- Malaysia: charges the US 47% tariffs, the US will counter with 24% reciprocal tariffs.
- Cambodia: charges the US 97% tariffs, the US will counter with 49% reciprocal tariffs.
- United Kingdom: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- South Africa: charges the US 60% tariffs, the US will counter with 30% reciprocal tariffs.
- Brazil: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Bangladesh: charges the US 74% tariffs, the US will counter with 37% reciprocal tariffs.
- Singapore: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Israel: charges the US 33% tariffs, the US will counter with 17% reciprocal tariffs.
- Philippines: charges the US 34% tariffs, the US will counter with 17% reciprocal tariffs.
- Chile: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Australia: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Pakistan: charges the US 58% tariffs, the US will counter with 29% reciprocal tariffs.
- Turkey: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Sri Lanka: charges the US 88% tariffs, the US will counter with 44% reciprocal tariffs.
- Colombia: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Peru: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Nicaragua: charges the US 36% tariffs, the US will counter with 18% reciprocal tariffs.
- Norway: charges the US 30% tariffs, the US will counter with 15% reciprocal tariffs.
- Costa Rica: charges the US 17% tariffs, the US will counter with 10% reciprocal tariffs.
- Jordan: charges the US 40% tariffs, the US will counter with 20% reciprocal tariffs.
- Dominican Republic: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- United Arab Emirates: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- New Zealand: charges the US 20% tariffs, the US will counter with 10% reciprocal tariffs.
- Argentina: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Ecuador: charges the US 12% tariffs, the US will counter with 10% reciprocal tariffs.
- Guatemala: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Honduras: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Madagascar (Burma): charges the US 88% tariffs, the US will counter with 44% reciprocal tariffs.
- Tunisia: charges the US 55% tariffs, the US will counter with 28% reciprocal tariffs.
- Kazakhstan: charges the US 54% tariffs, the US will counter with 27% reciprocal tariffs.
- Serbia: charges the US 74% tariffs, the US will counter with 37% reciprocal tariffs.
- Egypt: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Saudi Arabia: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- El Salvador: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Côte d’Ivoire: charges the US 41% tariffs, the US will counter with 21% reciprocal tariffs.
- Laos: charges the US 95% tariffs, the US will counter with 48% reciprocal tariffs.
- Botswana: charges the US 74% tariffs, the US will counter with 37% reciprocal tariffs.
- Trinidad and Tobago: charges the US 12% tariffs, the US will counter with 10% reciprocal tariffs.
- Morocco: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Moldova: charges the US 61% tariffs, the US will counter with 31% reciprocal tariffs.
- Angola: charges the US 63% tariffs, the US will counter with 32% reciprocal tariffs.
- Democratic Republic of the Congo: charges the US 22% tariffs, the US will counter with 11% reciprocal tariffs.
- Jamaica: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Mozambique: charges the US 31% tariffs, the US will counter with 16% reciprocal tariffs.
- Paraguay: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Zambia: charges the US 33% tariffs, the US will counter with 17% reciprocal tariffs.
- Lebanon: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Tanzania: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Iraq: charges the US 78% tariffs, the US will counter with 39% reciprocal tariffs.
- Georgia: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Senegal: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Azerbaijan:charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Cameroon: charges the US 22% tariffs, the US will counter with 11% reciprocal tariffs.
- Uganda: charges the US 20% tariffs, the US will counter with 10% reciprocal tariffs.
- Albania: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Armenia: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Nepal: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Sint Maarten: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Falkland Islands: charges the US 82% tariffs, the US will counter 41% with reciprocal tariffs.
- Gabon: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Kuwait: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Togo: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Suriname: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Belize: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Algeria: charges the US 59% tariffs, the US will counter with 30% reciprocal tariffs.
- Oman: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Uruguay: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Bahamas: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Lesotho: charges the US 99% tariffs, the US will counter with 55% reciprocal tariffs.
- Ukraine: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Bahrain: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Qatar: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Mauritius: charges the US 80% tariffs, the US will counter with 40% reciprocal tariffs.
- Fiji: charges the US 63% tariffs, the US will counter with 32% reciprocal tariffs.
- Iceland: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Kenya: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Liechtenstein: charges the US 73% tariffs, the US will counter with 37% reciprocal tariffs.
- Guyana: charges the US 76% tariffs, the US will counter with 38% reciprocal tariffs.
- Haiti: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina: charges the US 70% tariffs, the US will counter with 35% reciprocal tariffs.
- Nigeria: charges the US 27% tariffs, the US will counter with 14% reciprocal tariffs.
- Namibia: charges the US 42% tariffs, the US will counter with 21% reciprocal tariffs.
- Brunei: charges the US 47% tariffs, the US will counter with 24% reciprocal tariffs.
- Bolivia: charges the US 20% tariffs, the US will counter with 10% reciprocal tariffs.
- Panama: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Venezuela: charges the US 29% tariffs, the US will counter with 15% reciprocal tariffs.
- North Macedonia: charges the US 65% tariffs, the US will counter 33% with reciprocal tariffs.
- Ethiopia: charges the US 10% tariffs, the US will respond with a 10% baseline fee.
- Ghana: charges the US 17% tariffs, the US will counter with 10% reciprocal tariffs.
The full list was shared on by the White House’s rapid response team on X.
Ivory Coast is notably the world’s biggest cocoa producer and will face levies of 21%.
During an earnings call in January, Starbucks chief financial officer Rachel Ruggeri also noted that “higher prices to an already pressured consumer” would have a serious impact on the company.
WAITING GAME?
Other executives don’t feel the same about the tariffs’ overall impact on the US economy despite recent stock market dips.
Former Home Depot CEO Bob Nardelli argued that preparations being taken by retailers and businesses and overall unease is an “over-reaction.”
While speaking with Fox News, Nardelli warned consumers that “we’ve become a society of instant gratification” and that it would take time for the benefits of the tariffs to be seen.
“Here we see another move by this president to really level the playing field, and we’re seeing over-reaction in my opinion,” he added.
“I’m staying in this market because I believe what he’s [President Trump] doing over the long haul will benefit the country in a number of ways.”
The Trump administration is also locked in a back-and-forth trade battle with China as a whopping 104% tariff could take effect on Wednesday.
Many Americans have also been urged to buy up several products, including shoes, furniture, and cars, to avoid tariff impacts.
