After the highly anticipated arrival of America’s new crypto-loving leader, we thought that prices would just go up.
New macroeconomic forces driven by a new political paradigm would be the fuel for new market participants to flood into crypto!
But things didn’t go quite as planned….
Alts getting slaughtered,
Presidents rugpulling memecoins,
and Crypto Twitter is having a meltdown.
So what happens now?
Do tariffs remove the value of borderless money?
Does institutional ETH acquisition mean the asset is now dead?
In an attempt to make sense of the hustle and bustle of influencer marketing, celebrity grifting, and geopolitical drama, we unconsciously exhaust our cognitive capabilities and fall into the traps of human cognitive biases.
We lose sight of the bigger picture and allow impulse to override our time preferences.
By slowing down, taking a step back, and remembering the big picture, we can process things with a clear mind, accurately assess where we are, and make quality decisions about taking the next steps forward.
So please;
Sit back, lockin, and let’s let the good times roll.
Where are We?
Crypto is a radical, irrational, and fast-moving industry.
Being involved/overexposed to intraday price volatility is emotionally abusive, and alongside the titanic influx of information, it becomes difficult to distinguish between noise and signal.
Its open nature and relative youth creates an environment where novelty rules and quality get overlooked.
After 24 months of tremendous expansion, led by the duet of Bitcoin’s stability and memecoin absurdity, we have arrived at the final chapters of the crypto cycle… Or so it seems.
Human biases lead us to believe we can predict the future based on the past, and maybe, to some degree, we can. However, we tend to over-index our assumptions and discount the fundamental forces at play in the moment.
With governments and corporations entering the fray by building their balance sheets, institutions launching ETFs, and radical expansion of awareness, we need to understand the type of capital, the sophistication of market participants, and the endless experimentation have augmented the landscape.
The forces that brought the industry to this level, are not the same forces that will take it to the next.
THE GAME HAS CHANGED.
Well, to be more accurate, the game didn’t change, but the rules have.
The Game
Building on the capabilities of the internet to transmit information instantly anywhere in the world, Crypto fundamentally transforms the systems of power governing human social life and applies universally across domains/industries.
Through an eloquent weaving of immutability and auditability, it has displaced the vehicle(s) that people use to facilitate the transfer and storage of value (AKA money) and ushered in a new era of finance/economics.
It has given a new form factor for humans to coordinate in cyberspace and enabled the diffusion of power in hierarchies of power by superimposing transparency.
Its underlying technology, blockchain, unlocked the capacity to create a colloquial “fabric of trust” in the digital realm. This, in turn, has provided us with ownership and data provenance, two subtle elements that play an existentially important role in building safe AI.
As one of the pillars propelling humanity towards singularity, “the game” of crypto is larger than any individual, corporation, or even nation-state.
We need people to come together, change their habits, and rehypothecate value. To build technology. To go against the grain of old behaviors and embrace sovereignty. To trade short-term comfort for long-term freedom (trading pun intended).
The Hunt
When we think of impact on this kind of scale, we must understand that the gestation period for this to materialize is long. Changes to the infrastructure take time not just to be built but also to be integrated, challenged, adjusted, re-evaluated, adopted, and only then does it materialize.
This is a very messy, chaotic process.
Just like a hockey puck on ice,
A soccer ball on the field,
A wild boar in the forest,
Crypto is a moving target, specifically its narrative.
To hit your target, you must aim/move to where it is going, not where it is right now.
Bitcoin’s narrative has been digital gold.
To achieve this target, it must eclipse (or at least match) the market capitalization of gold.
As can be seen on the charts, this has not happened… The job’s not done.
On the other hand, we have altcoins, where the narrative changes at the speed of Kanye’s tweets.
Kill Ethereum,
Cat coins to $100 Billion,
AI agents to rule them all…
Granted, crypto is a multi-dimensional, multi-player game that, like every other element of the human experience, is subject to cyclical forces of nature (be they manipulated by humans or not).
Nevertheless, none of these shifting narratives have materialized.
Nearly all of them have changed or been disproven.
The most poetic thing of all is the subtle underlying macro trend: The less the narrative has changed, the more trust it has built, the more reliable it has become, and the healthier it has been for a portfolio.
And success here varies depending on what role you are playing;
For traders, it’s about the dopamine hits;
– you must predict the next trend before it happens.
For builders, it’s about project adoption;
– You need to show people what they haven’t seen yet.
For investors, it’s about generational wealth;
– you need to stay convicted and weather the storm.
What Now?
Hurry up, and Slow down.
When in the heat of battle, navigating crypto can be daunting.
When prices rise, everybody is happy, nobody has time to even care about the grifters.
When prices are falling, people lose their minds, blaming everything but their own decisions.
Timeless “wisdom” from disparate walks of life clashes;
Let your winners run; cut your losers quickly
If you don’t hold, you won’t be rich
In the words of our industry, “Go touch Some Grass”.
When the mind is resting, you can take the time to process thoughts and emotions. Growth happens not during the action itself, but after it has been digested.
Eating food doesn’t make you fat.
Digesting it does.
Lifting weights doesn’t grow muscle;
Resting does.
Hone in on the undeniable, universal truths underpinning macro trends;
Yes, society is digital and will only become more digital moving forward.
Yes, trust will continue to be the most important factor in asset allocation.
Your best bet is to experiment as much as possible to optimize your trajectory and, through the process of elimination, expand your skillset and comprehension of the wild variance and volatility of society.
Having some exposure at all times and gradually building up a position is the healthiest/most balanced approach.
Believe in something.
What Next?
I don’t think the cycle is over.
But I have NO idea how it will play out.
Sideways, Up, down, inside-out, up again, down again, then new ATH, and then finally…..
Will Bitcoin go to $1,000,000?
Will Ethereum really become the “world computer”?
Will Memecoins really be the frontier that builds retail wealth?
Who knows.
But there is one thing that I suggest on a personal, friendly note;
The amount of grift is despicable. Every time the industry starts performing well, some “guru” shows up and starts contorting newbies’ realities by playing the Broken Clock game and just relentlessly bull posting; or worse yet, shilling absolute trash.
99.9% of them are paid to hype and market.
99.9% of them don’t care about you or society at large.
Listen to them if you must, but do not depend on anybody else’s opinion to run your life. Do not try removing the responsibility of the hard work and accountability from yourself.
When there is a wave coming, the tide must pull back.
The further back it pulls, the larger the wave.
It only feels right to end this with one of the most famous and underrated modern quotes of all time:
You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
If you heard that one before, that’s great, but did you act on it?
The ultimate purpose of education is not knowledge but action!
What a time to be alive…
Let’s go make history Anon 🥂
