Ukraine’s recent campaign of drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure has succeeded in knocking out around one-tenth of Russia’s refining capacity, according to analysis by news agency Reuters.
Since the beginning of 2025, Ukraine has launched a wave of long-range drone attacks against military and industrial targets inside Russia. The Kremlin remains tight-lipped over the impact of these air strikes, but open source data and media reports point to significant damage to at least eight Russian refineries along with a number of oil depots and key logistical points such as pumping stations and ports used for oil and gas exports. The range of targets suggests a well-planned Ukrainian campaign to methodically dismantle Russia’s energy infrastructure.
Ukraine’s bombing offensive is proving effective. Calculations by Reuters analysts based on oil industry trading figures covering the period from January to early February 2025 indicate that Ukrainian drone attacks have disabled approximately 10 percent of Russia’s refining capacity. Coupled with the impact of recently imposed United States sanctions against the Kremlin’s shadow fleet of oil tankers, this is expected to leave Moscow with no choice but to slow oil production in the coming months.
Reports of significant disruption to Russia’s energy industry will be welcomed in Kyiv. Ukrainian officials have made no secret of their intention to target the Russian oil and gas sector, which serves as the economic engine of Vladimir Putin’s war machine. The first Ukrainian attacks took place during the initial months of the war, with a marked increase in frequency during 2024. Ukraine’s air offensive against Russia’s energy industry now appears to be entering a new phase of heightened intensity.
Ukraine’s efforts to bring Putin’s invasion home to Russia have been hampered by restrictions imposed on the use of Western-supplied weapons amid a reluctance among Kyiv’s partners to risk escalating the conflict. The Kremlin has skillfully exploited these fears, with Putin warning explicitly in September 2024 that any attempt to lift restrictions on long-range strikes would mean NATO and Russia were “at war.”
In order to bypass Western restrictions, Ukraine has prioritized the domestic production of long-range drones and missiles capable of striking targets deep inside Russia. Thanks to Ukraine’s innovative defense tech sector and the country’s strong aerospace legacy from the Soviet era, progress has been rapid. In late 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy showcased a number of new domestically produced drones and missiles with expanded ranges and payloads.
Ukrainian officials have stated that they intend to manufacture 30,000 long-range drones and 3000 missiles during the current year. Some of Kyiv’s Western partners also appear to recognize the strategic importance of Ukraine’s growing long-range arsenal, and are providing financing for production along with technical support. However, it will still be some time before Ukraine has sufficient long-range firepower to seriously threaten Russia’s ability to wage war.
At present, Ukraine’s air offensive is achieving the more limited goals of disrupting Russia’s energy industry, stretching the Kremlin’s limited air defenses, and undermining Moscow’s efforts to insulate ordinary Russians from the war. Since the onset of the full-scale invasion three years ago, Putin has been careful to cultivate a business-as-usual climate within Russia itself. Ukraine’s eye-catching daily strikes on oil refineries and storage depots are now sending a powerful message to the Russian public that the war unleashed by the Kremlin in February 2022 will not be fought exclusively on foreign soil.
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Ukraine’s expanding arsenal of domestically produced long-range weapons is particularly important at a time of growing uncertainty over the future of US military aid for the country. Throughout the war, the Ukrainian military has been heavily reliant on the United States and other Western partners for vital weapons supplies. However, there are now mounting concerns in Kyiv that US President Donald Trump’s efforts to reach a compromise peace deal with Putin could leave Ukraine isolated and vulnerable to further Russian aggression.
In the absence of credible NATO-style security guarantees, Ukrainian leaders believe one of the few reliable deterrents would be the proven ability to strike back powerfully at targets inside Russia. Zelenskyy’s “victory plan,” which he presented to Western partners in the final months of 2024, included a call for the supply of long-range missiles as part of a “non-nuclear deterrence package” designed to prevent a fresh Russian invasion. In his traditional New Year address, Zelenskyy spoke at length about Ukraine’s numerous new missile models, calling them “arguments for a just peace.”
There is currently very little to suggest that Putin is interested in any kind of peace with Ukraine, of course. On the contrary, he looks to be more confident of victory than ever, and appears unwilling to compromise on his original war aim of extinguishing Ukrainian statehood. However, if Ukraine can continue escalating its current wave of attacks on Russia’s economically vital but vulnerable energy industry, the Russian dictator may be forced to reassess the prospects of his invasion.
Peter Dickinson is editor of the ’s UkraineAlert service.
The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the , its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.
Image: Fire and smoke rise at an oil depot following a Ukrainian drone attack, according to regional officials, in Novominskaya, Russia, in this screengrab obtained from a social media video released on February 5, 2025. (Social Media/via REUTERS)
