This compromise was presented as an attempted appeasement in transatlantic trade relations after Donald Trump’s attacks. However, it could cause significant economic effects … especially on the American side. According to Ruben Nizard, an economist at Coface, consumers in the United States will probably be the first affected. “” Several studies suggest that most of these customs rights increases would be supported by Americans », He observes at Figaro. The United States is dependent on certain European products which are not made locally.
A consumption tax that does not say its name
Take the example of French wine, particularly popular across the Atlantic. Depending on the decisions made by the producers, the customs duties increases could affect consumer prices directly. If the producers refuse to cut on their margins, it is the distributors – then the end customers – will absorb the cost. “” It will be problematic for consumers more sensitive to prices “Warns the economist.
Same diagnosis for Sébastien Jean, of the French Institute of International Relations: ” These additional customs duties are an additional tax on American domestic consumption. According to him, the agreement could also fuel persistent inflation and slow down growth, by maintaining an uncertainty that is not very favorable to investment.
If European households should be relatively spared immediately, the indirect effects of this agreement could weaken certain exporting industries of the continent. Aeronautics, automotive, agriculture, chemistry or pharmacy: so many already weakened sectors, which risk accusing the blow to this new entry tax on the American market.
Export is absolutely vital for all these sectors. However, 15 % more expensive exports to sell to the United States could cause a drop in sales, force restructuring, even cause job cuts. Some even see a form of strategic decline on the part of the EU, a loss of influence and room for maneuver for European industry.
The impact on growth, already very fragile in France as in Europe, is also closely monitored. An increase in customs duties of 10 points could have already amputate French growth by 0.2 to 0.3 points in the 18 months, according to certain studies. With this new 15 % agreement, the trend could worsen, in a context where forecasts for 2025 are already weak: 0.6 % according to INSEE, against 1.1 % for 2024.
On the consumption side, direct effects should remain limited in Europe. Purchases of American goods by French and European households remain marginal, which should contain the impact on prices.
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