The Academy Awards aren’t just Hollywood’s biggest night. They’re the grand finale of an awards season shaped as much by social media buzz as by critic reviews. From red-carpet fashion to acceptance speech soundbites, the conversation online often reveals more about who might win than the pundits do.
But can social media chatter actually predict Oscar winners? It wouldn’t be the first time. Last year, many of the biggest frontrunners, like Oppenheimer, turned their online popularity into golden statues — though not every movie can benefit from a viral genre-bending portmanteau.
This year, we’re seeing similar patterns emerge across categories, with some clear favorites and a few potential upsets.
To find out who might take home the gold, we used Hootsuite Social Listening to track the online buzz, sentiment, and engagement around this year’s nominees. The results? Let’s just say some races are tighter than a Best Editing montage.
Who’s trending for all the right reasons? Who’s facing backlash that could cost them votes? Let’s break down the 2025 Oscar predictions according to social media.
Key Terms
- Results: The total number of individual social media posts mentioning a specific keyword. Multiple mentions within one post count as a single result.
- Engagement: The number of interactions (likes, comments, shares) a post receives, indicating how much attention a conversation is generating.
- Sentiment: A measure of how positive or negative the conversation around a topic is.
- Net sentiment: The difference between positive and negative sentiment. A positive score means favorable mentions outweigh negative ones, while a negative score suggests the opposite.
- Potential reach: The estimated number of users who could see a post, based on the poster’s follower count and engagement levels.
Psstt: Want to check out the rest of our social listening series? We’ve also monitored online sentiment before the U.S. election, measured the impact of the Taylor Swift Effect, and predicted this year’s Grammy winners. We’re pretty good at this!
Best Supporting Actress: Did Ariana give a Wicked-ly good performance?
In the race for Best Supporting Actress, Ariana Grande and Zoe Saldaña are leading the conversation.
While Grande’s nomination for her role in Wicked generated significant buzz, Saldaña’s turn in Emilia Pérez has resulted in a surge in social mentions that has made this category more competitive than expected.
And while the social results show Grande far outpacing Saldaña throughout the year, we can’t forget that Grande boasts a massive built-in fanbase.
Since much of Grande’s online popularity stems from her music, beauty brands, and pop culture persona, rather than her acting performance, we ran a separate search to filter out those results.
The filtered results reveal a much tighter race — and it’s one that Saldaña appears to be winning.
The only potential pitfall for Saldaña? Her net sentiment score dipped into the negatives as she faced backlash following a controversy involving co-star Karla Sofía Gascón, though it’s since rebounded into positive territory.
Best Supporting Actress according to social media: Zoe Saldaña
Runner up: Ariana Grande
While Grande is head and shoulders above all other nominees in terms of her social media presence, we’re pretty sure much of that conversation can be attributed to her large existing following. The Arianators may be legion, but they don’t necessarily represent the voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science.
Saldaña’s spike, on the other hand, is more organically tied to her Oscar-nominated role and recent press coverage. And with her sentiment now back in the positives, we’re picking Saldaña as our favorite to win Best Supporting Actress.
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Best Supporting Actor: Will the eldest boy prevail?
The race for Best Supporting Actor is as tight as…well, a Succession boardroom showdown.
Right now, Kieran Culkin, Jeremy Strong, and Edward Norton are dominating social conversations. Culkin appears to be in the lead, though, thanks to his standout performance in A Real Pain (and, let’s be honest, his charmingly chaotic press appearances in support of the film).
Strong has earned plenty of positive press, while Norton’s veteran status keeps him in the conversation. Still, Culkin’s consistent lead in both sentiment and visibility makes his win feel inevitable.
That’s because Culkin’s sustained momentum (he’s now won several major awards for the role, including a Golden Globe, a BAFTA, and a SAG) has only amplified the conversation, keeping him top-of-mind among fans and Oscar voters alike.
With strong positive sentiment on his side, we’re betting Culkin continues his winning streak.
Best Supporting Actor according to social media: Kieran Culkin
Runner up: Edward Norton
Culkin’s performance, media presence, and positive sentiment give him the edge. Strong and Norton may have gained ground, but Culkin’s consistent popularity makes him the likely winner.
Best Actress: Has the balance of controversy and impact been respected?
If there’s one category where Oscar buzz feels as dramatic as the performances themselves, it’s Best Actress.
This year, Fernanda Torres, Karla Sofía Gascón, and Demi Moore have dominated the conversation — but not always for the right reasons.
While Torres, nominated for I’m Still Here, surged after her Golden Globe win, Gascón’s nomination has been clouded by controversy, including resurfaced posts on X and rumors of a behind-the-scenes clash with Torres.
That drama fueled a spike in mentions, but not all press is good press: Gascón’s net sentiment score plummeted to -80 during the peak of the backlash.
On the other hand, Demi Moore, nominated for her (*ahem*) transformative performance in The Substance, has maintained a steady social presence for more than six months, long after the film’s premiere.
Unlike her competitors, Moore’s buzz has been consistent and largely positive, making her a strong contender.
The wildcard here? Both Torres and Moore dipped into the negatives during the height of awards season discourse but have since rebounded to the positives, while Gascón remains underwater.
So who takes the win? While Moore’s year-long visibility could sway voters, Torres’ recent surge — right in the middle of the Oscar voting window — makes her the current frontrunner.
Best Actress according to social media:: Fernanda Torres
Runner up: Demi Moore
Torres leads in both volume and sentiment, with an impressive net sentiment score of 78. The timing of her buzz, peaking right as Oscar ballots are being cast, gives her the edge. Despite Moore’s recent win at the SAG Awards, she may have simply peaked too early.
Best Actor: Is it little Timmy’s time to shine?
If Oscar season had a main character, it would undoubtedly be Timothée Chalamet.
From his critically acclaimed performance in A Complete Unknown to his seemingly endless parade of viral moments, Chalamet has been everywhere, and the social media conversation reflects it.
But while Chalamet has been in every headline, he’s not the only nominee commanding attention. Adrien Brody, Sebastian Stan, and Colman Domingo have all seen spikes in social mentions, particularly after key wins and press tours.
Stan, in particular, saw a notable surge following the release of The Apprentice, though the polarizing nature of his role as Donald Trump appears to have hurt his sentiment score.
Brody was off to a great start before The Brutalist got in hot water over its use of AI, but overall sentiment towards him looks like it’s started to recover.
Actually, when it comes to sentiment, none of the nominees have escaped backlash — except for Colman Domingo, whose comparatively lower profile appears to have helped keep the conversation neutral.
Best Actor according to social media:: Timothée Chalamet
Runner up: Adrien Brody
Chalamet’s star power, media presence, and overwhelming volume of buzz give him the edge in this category. Brody has held his own in sentiment, but Chalamet’s ability to stay top-of-mind — from film premieres to viral social moments — makes him the likely winner.
Best Picture: The popular choice may not prevail
Our other predictions may have been relatively straightforward, but this is where it gets tricky.
Best Picture can be hard to predict, both because of the sheer number of nominees (10!) and because many of the nominated films were only recently released to general audiences.
Social listening data shows Wicked outpacing every other nominee in terms of overall mentions, fueled by its viral TikTok moments, celebrity-packed premieres, and brand partnerships.
From dance challenges to makeup collabs, it’s been more than just a movie — it’s been a cultural moment.
But popularity doesn’t always equal positivity. Emilia Pérez also sparked plenty of conversations, but they were often overshadowed by controversy surrounding its casting and cultural commentary.
Nickel Boys, based on Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, quietly racked up praise across platforms, with consistently high sentiment scores and strong word-of-mouth recommendations.
It didn’t generate as many viral moments, but the conversation was overwhelmingly positive.
Best Picture according to social media:: Nickel Boys
Runner up: Wicked
While Wicked and Emilia Pérez have led the conversation, Nickel Boys takes the lead with stronger sentiment and critical goodwill — factors that often sway Academy voters in the final stretch. It may have flown under the radar, but Nickel Boys has also managed to avoid controversy.
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