The TikTok ban is swiftly approaching on Jan. 19. But there’s plenty of uncertainty about what will actually happen to the app on that day. talked to experts, who contend that regardless of what actually happens on Sunday, the TikTok user experience is likely to drastically degrade in the weeks to come.
Will users be able to access TikTok?
There’s a strong possibility that TikTok will shut down completely. During a Supreme Court hearing last week, a lawyer for TikTok said that the app will “go dark” if the court didn’t pause the ban. On Wednesday, Reuters reported that TikTok is preparing to shut its app on Sunday: that anyone who tries to log onto the app will be directed to a message alerting them to the ban and prompting them to download their data if they wish to do so. Users in India, which banned TikTok in 2020, are met with a similar message.
A full website block would go above and beyond what the law mandates, which prohibits app stores and third party service providers from hosting the app and its related data. Let’s say ByteDance, the Chinese companies that owns TikTok, simply adhered to that set of rules. On Sunday, new users would be cut off from downloading the app. Those with TikTok already on their phone, however, would still have access to the app, and not risk any legal penalties for logging on.
But TikTok would no longer be able to update the software, making it buggier and slower over time. The app’s security would also weaken, making users more susceptible to hackers. In this scenario, TikTok would die a slow death, as its technology degrades and its social fabric weakens with users departing for other platforms.
Is using a VPN an option?
Many TikTok users may attempt to use a VPN (virtual private network) or order to access the app. VPNs encrypt location data, allowing users to make it look like they’re somewhere else in the world. After
Kate Ruane, director of the Free Expression Project at the Center for Democracy and Technology, says that VPNs would allow users to access TikTok legally. (The CDT joined an amicus brief supporting TikTok and its users.) But Ruane predicts that the experience will quickly worsen for those users, especially because TikTok files won’t be allowed to be hosted within the US “There will be distance that data has to travel, which may degrade the service, since video in particular is highly dependent upon high fidelity broadband Internet access,” she says.
Bruce Randall Donald, a computer science and math professor at Duke University, adds that VPNs may not work very well on smartphones, the very medium that TikTok is designed for. “They’re not going to work very well on appliances like an iPhone, iPad or Android, which don’t have the full strength of VPN security,” he says. “The experience is likely to be more glitch-free on a laptop or desktop. But if you’ve ever used Tiktok on a laptop or desktop, it’s not a very satisfying experience.”
Read More: Why So Many TikTokers Are Moving to the Chinese App Red Note Ahead of Ban
Will the US government intervene?
Some members of the government have been trying to save TikTok from its imminent demise. On Wednesday, a group of legislators led by Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey introduced the Extend the TikTok Deadline Act, aiming to pause the ban for 270 days. But the original ban was passed with wide bipartisan support, and it is unlikely that this new bill will make it through both chambers in time.
President-elect Donald Trump is also interested in pausing the ban, arguing that he should have time as president to pursue a “political resolution” of the issue. Once he becomes President, he could temporarily pause the law if ByteDance has started the process to sell TikTok. But ByteDance has repeatedly stated that the app is not for sale.
Trump could also order his Justice Department to refrain from enforcing the law, essentially rendering it toothless and nullifying its power. In the Supreme Court oral arguments last week, Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar acknowledged that the President has the discretion to do so. But she also said that if ByteDance or third-party providers continued to operate TikTok in the US, they would be violating the law, which would make them susceptible to future enforcement.
Ruane voiced a similar sentiment. “Even if President Trump and the incoming Attorney General say ‘I will not be enforcing this law,’ there would still be significant legal risk for the companies to which the law applies that they may not be willing to take on,” she says. “Because should the decision ever change, they could be subject to significant penalties.”
Donald predicts that most companies who could feasibly provide TikTok services may instead choose to play it safe. “If they’re not in compliance for at least some period of time, there’s a vulnerability there, with a market cap and shareholder situation, that would be actually somewhat dangerous,” he says.
So while there are several loopholes for users to remain on TikTok, strong disincentives will likely lead to a steep decline in terms of platform experience. Government intervention, meanwhile, seems increasingly distant. So unless something drastically unexpected occurs in the next week, creators would be wise to search for a replacement platform.
