Trump made just one space promise during his inauguration speech, but it was no small feat.
The Martian dream. Amid cheers and jumps of enthusiasm from Elon Musk, Donald Trump pointed out Mars as the new “manifest destiny” of the United States. The newly inaugurated president promised to take astronauts to the Red Planet and plant the American flag in Martian soil.
Trump stated: “We will pursue our manifest destiny to the stars, launching American astronauts to plant the flag on the planet Mars.” His words are not coincidental and have a clear influence, but they seem to mark a change of priorities for NASA that leaves the future of the Artemis lunar program in the air.
The influence of Elon Musk. “We are going straight to Mars, the Moon is a distraction,” the SpaceX CEO wrote two weeks ago. No one quite understood the scope of that tweet, since SpaceX has a very important contract with NASA to build the lander for the Artemis III and IV lunar missions, but now that message resonates on Capitol Hill.
There, President Trump focused on Mars. It could just be a rhetorical statement (slowly, but surely, we have to get to Mars before China does), but with Elon Musk as a key ally, the new government could really be preparing a radical shift in astronautics strategy.
The current Artemis program. It was precisely Trump’s first term that shaped NASA’s current lunar program. The then administrator, Jim Bridenstine, managed to put the United States’ return to the Moon on track with an architecture that combined NASA’s internal developments (the SLS rocket and the Orion spacecraft) with commercial spacecraft from private companies (SpaceX’s Starship HLS and Blue Origin’s Blue Moon lunar module).
In turn, Bridenstine promoted a series of unmanned lunar missions and the creation of the Artemis Accords, which already have 53 signatory countries, for international cooperation in future missions to the Moon, including the construction of a lunar base, the commercial exploitation of the satellite and everything that comes after (Mars, comets and asteroids).
The Moon is a cruel lover. Artemis is not at her best. Manned missions have been delayed due to problems with the Orion ship and delays in the development of Starship. Furthermore, the insane cost overruns of the SLS rocket have put a good part of public opinion against the current architecture of the program, which could be reconfigured with the support of SpaceX’s new Starship and Blue Origin’s New Glenn rockets.
To make matters worse, the first two commercial missions associated with Artemis (CLPS-1 and CLPS-2) failed by not reaching the Moon or crashing down upon landing, which has precipitated the cancellation of other more important missions such as NASA’s VIPER rover. But until Trump’s speech, there was nothing to predict that the Artemis program would be in danger. Is it really?
From the Moon to Mars. Until now, NASA’s plan was to establish itself on the Moon throughout this decade and the next (or at least at the Gateway lunar station in orbit with the satellite) to prepare for the jump to Mars in the 2040s. Prioritizing the Red Planet would leave three scenarios for the foreseeable new NASA administrator, Jared Isaacman:
- A reduced lunar program, without aspirations to create a large lunar base like the one proposed by the ILRS program led by China. Thus, the United States would continue in the race to put the first woman on the Moon while continuing to focus on Mars. In exchange, he would cede lunar land to his opponents
- A bifurcated program with parallel lunar and Martian missions that do not throw away everything that has been developed so far. It would be the logical step if NASA’s budget were unlimited, but with the enormous investment involved in the lunar program, adding a Martian program seems impossible.
- A total redirection to the conquest of Mars. Following Elon Musk’s vision: the Moon is a distraction from the ultimate goal of becoming a multiplanetary civilization. Even with a majority in Congress, it is the option in which giants such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and even New Space lose (Blue Origin has several lunar contracts). It seems complicated for congressmen to agree on a clean slate, but it is not totally impossible
How would the United States get to Mars? There would be a public tender, but one option immediately comes to mind. NASA could adopt SpaceX’s Mars program as its own. Elon Musk said SpaceX planned to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars in 2026 and, if they managed to land, the first crewed mission to Mars in history in 2028.
Experts agree on a crucial point: a mission with astronauts to Mars in the next four years is technically impossible if it is to be done with guarantees, since the scientific and technological challenges are monumental. But there were also many people convinced that Trump would not win the election again while Musk was betting money that he would.
Image | The White House, NASA
In WorldOfSoftware | Artemis has entered into crisis: NASA remains silent about the Orion spacecraft and rumors of cancellation of the SLS grow
