In just a few days of observations, the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 impact with the earth has risen from 1.2 to 1.6%. Once otherwise, there is a 98.4% chance that the newly discovered object passes by long. But the risk of not doing so is high enough for the UN to activate, for the first time, its planetary security protocol.
Revised calculations. 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 by the latest land impact alert system (Atlas) from Chile, but did not caught the attention of astronomers until it automatically appeared on the NASA Sentry list on December 31 by its impact risk (then just above 1%) with the planet Earth.
According to the updated data published yesterday by the Coordination Center of Objects close to Earth (NEOCC) of the European Space Agency (ESA), the 2024 YR4 asteroid measures between 40 and 90 meters in diameter and has 1.6% of possibilities of impacting with the Earth on December 22, 2032. It would do so near Ecuador, at some point that goes from northern South America to northern India, passing through center of Africa.
Meetings in NASA and ESA. We can agree that the impact probability remains very small, but has put in sus impact probability of more than 1% in the next 50 years.
With the planetary security protocol officially activated, 2024 YR4 has triggered, for the moment, two SMPAG meetings. One with the NASA planetary defense coordination office, and another in Vienna with the experts of the ESA Planetary Defense Office.
What the experts have decided. Actively observe the asteroid and meet again at the end of April or early May (or before, if the risk of impact increases significantly) to reassess the situation. The probabilities can change in favor or against time as astronomers make more observations and refine the calculations of the asteroid trajectory.
If the asteroid remains greater than 50 meters and the probability of impact is maintained above 1% for the next meeting, the SMPAG will issue a recommendation on future actions to the United Nations External Space Affairs Office (oneo). We will definitely need offices with acronym that is easier to remember if Armageddon comes true.
We have some practice. Let’s not forget that humanity has already successfully diverted an asteroid. NASA did as proof of concept in September 2022 with the Dart mission, a ship that slightly diverted the trajectory of Dimorphos, the small moon of the asteroid Didymos.
The European Mission Hera is now heading there to study the result of the impact. Everything we can learn from this test (and the one that China will do in a few months) could make the difference in future planetary defense missions, the case may be.
Images | Astrophyscia Institute of the Canary Islands, NASA/JPL
In WorldOfSoftware | Dart has been a success. The question is whether it will really save us when an asteroid goes to Earth
