The ‘city killer’ asteroid (possibly) heading our way might spare us and slam into the Moon instead, scientists said.
The space rock known as 2024 YR4 has a 2.1% chance of hitting Earth based on current observations.
If it came down anywhere populated, that would be very bad, flattening an area miles wide if it’s on the larger side of estimates.
But another possibility is that the Moon would take the hit, according to David Rankin of the Catalina Sky Survey asteroid hunting group, who put the chance of it whacking our satellite at 0.3%.
While that sounds alarming, it actually wouldn’t be a bad outcome, as it would save us from being pummeled ourselves.
Dr Robin George Andrews, science journalist and author of How to KIll an Asteroid, told Metro: ‘The Moon would barely notice. It would be like a mosquito hitting a windshield.’
Here on Earth we might get a good display though as it slammed into the surface at 50,000kph.
Dr Andrews, who wrote about the possible moon strike in New Scientist, told Metro: ‘’The Moon doesn’t have an atmosphere to slow the asteroid down, so it wouldn’t explode in the air; it would hit the surface for sure.
‘The estimate is it would hit the near side, so we would all get to see it. Some people say that it wouldn’t be bright enough, and some say it would be brighter than the full moon.’
He said it would take a ‘hilariously colossal’ asteroid hitting the Moon for things like tides on Earth to be affected.
How big is Asteroid 2024 YR4?
We still don’t know the exact size of YR4, but it is thought to be in the region of 40m to 90m wide, putting it in the category of potential city killer, rather than planet killer (like the huge one which killed the dinosaurs).
It has a small chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032.
Another question is what it’s actually made of, which could affect planetary defence missions. Some asteroids are solid rock or iron, but others are more like rubble bound together by gravity, which would crumble apart into boulders when hit, potentially creating dangerous debris.
Nasa’s James Webb telescope will now study the asteroid to try and learn more about it before it goes too far away again for us to analyse, in time for us to work out if we need to try and stop it.
The asteroid was first identified as a potential problem by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile on January 27.
What would happen if it hit the moon?
If the Moon ‘bravely’ came between us and the asteroid, the impact would likely cause a crater, because it would be a direct hit.
Any debris thrown up by the impact would either stay there or drift into space, Dr Andrews said.
There would only be a small possibility of any coming our way, and if it did, it would burn up in the atmosphere.
While the asteroid’s possible path is cause for concern, It’s important to note there is still a very low chance of it actually harming us.
Even if we were unlucky enough for it to hit, it would be much more likely to come down above an ocean or desert than a populated area.
But if it did hit the Moon, we could thank our celestial bodyguard for diving in front to save us.
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