If NASA estimated a few days ago that there were 3.1 % chance that 2024 YR4 struck us on December 22, 2032, new observations made it possible to reassess this probability to 1.5 %. Phew, we breathe a little better, but the space agency does not release its surveillance.
A serious threat, but don’t panic
Discovered in 2023, the asteroid displays a diameter between 40 and 90 meters. What cause serious damage if it was crashed on our planet. “” An asteroid of this size strikes the earth every thousands of years and could cause major damage to the regional scale “Explains the European Space Agency (ESA). Direct consequence: it was placed at the top of the list of space objects to watch closely.
Thanks to the recent observations made by terrestrial telescopes, NASA and ESA were able to refine the trajectory of this unwanted guest. But beware, if the probability of impact has decreased, it has not yet fallen to zero. “” Our understanding of its route improves over the days. We continue to follow the case closely and we will keep you informed Reassures the American agency. Thank you yes, we want to be kept informed.
Another worrying point: the place where it could strike is vague. According to experts, the potential impact corridor crosses several regions, ranging from the eastern Pacific Ocean to South America, passing through the Atlantic, Africa and South Asia. If 2024 YR4 made us a surprise visit, it could cause damage to 50 kilometers around its fall point.
With the end of the lunar cycle and darker nights, astronomers were able to resume their observations to specify a little more the trajectory of the asteroid. Note also that, even if it remains very improbable (0.8 % luck), the moon could also be affected by a collision with YR4. Definitely, this pebble is invited everywhere.
To avoid being caught in the face of this type of threat, NASA plans to launch in 2027 the Near-Earth Object (Neo) Surveyor mission. Its purpose will be to detect asteroids thanks to the infrared, which would identify potentially dangerous celestial objects more quickly. “” It is crucial to refine our estimate of the size of 2024 YR4: an impact of an asteroid of 40 meters and one of 90 meters, it is not at all the same story Mécise the exhaust.
Even if the news is rather reassuring, scientists remain on the lookout. Until then, do not panic: with each new observation, the scenario of a collision with the earth seems to be moving away. We still keep an eye on it, in case.
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