OVER 25 million people across the world will be living with a debilitating brain condition by 2050, scientists have warned.
Cases of the progressive disease are set to surge by 112 per cent on numbers recorded in 2021, a study published to the BMJ predicts.
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Researchers from Capital Medical University in Beijing, China, estimated that an ageing population would drive the surge in cases of Parkinson’s disease over the next 25 years.
Around 153,000 in the UK currently live with Parkinson’s, a neurological condition that gets worse over time.
Symptoms such as tremors, muscle stiffness and slow movement start to appear when the brain can’t make enough dopamine to control movement.
According to Parkinson’s UK, the condition is the fastest growing neurological condition in the world.
This was supported by Chinese scientists, who predicted that there will be 25.2 million people worldwide with Parkinson’s disease.
Their analysis showed that the number of cases per 100,000 people is expected to increase by 76 per cent from 2021.
When adjusting for differences in age across populations, the increase is expected to be 55 per cent.
Researchers say these projections “could serve as an aid in promoting health research, informing policy decisions, and allocating resources”.
To conduct their analysis, they used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to estimate the prevalence of Parkinson’s disease in 195 countries from 2022 to 2050 and the factors driving changes in Parkinson’s disease cases.
They estimated that 25.2 million men and women of all ages will be living with Parkinson’s disease two and a half decades from now, representing a 112 per cent increase from 2021.
People living to longer will probably be the main driver (89 per cent) behind this rise, though population growth may account for 20 per cent of the surge in cases.
Researchers said Parkinson’s disease will become more common across the world, but less developed countries will see the biggest increase in cases.
A whopping 10.9 million of the cases are predicted to be in East Asia – which includes China, Japan, North and South Korea and Taiwan.
Meanwhile, 6.8 million people living in South Asia – including places like India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – will have been diagnosed with Parkinson’s by 2050.
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Australia, New Zealand and other islands in the Pacific Ocean will see the fewest cases, researchers added.
The most pronounced increase in Parkinson’s disease cases is expected to occur in western Sub-Saharan Africa, which could see a 292 per cent surge, according to researchers’ analysis.
But they said central and eastern Europe will see smallest increase in cases will be – only 28 per cent – due to shrinking populations and fewer people due to negative population growth and fewer people living to older age brackets compared to other regions.
Researchers said cases would be highest in people aged over 80, with more men rather than women affected.
They suggested preventative measures such as exercising more may reduce the future number of Parkinson’s disease cases.
Study authors noted that people should be cautious in interpreting their results.
They pointed out that the quality of their data varied across different regions and they didn’t have data on risk factors other than demographics.
They also couldn’t predict whether some ethnic groups were more likely to be diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease compared to others.
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However, the researchers say that to the best of their knowledge, this study provides the first comprehensive projections of the global, regional, and national prevalence of Parkinson’s disease until 2050.
They concluded: “An urgent need exists for future research to focus on the development of novel drugs, gene engineering techniques, and cell replacement therapies that are aimed at modifying the course of the disease and improving patients’ quality of life.”
They explained why it was so important to be able to predict the number of people who will get Parkinson’s disease.
“Projecting the future number of people with Parkinson’s disease is important for several reasons. Accurate projections enable appropriate allocation of healthcare resources and a better understanding of demand for specialists, drug treatments, rehabilitation, and long term care, preventing shortages that could lead to delayed diagnoses, inadequate treatment choices, and diminished health related quality of life for patients,” they wrote in an editorial published to BMJ.
“Projections also inform targeted interventions, early diagnosis efforts, and public health prevention and management
strategies,” they went on.
“Understanding the growing prevalence of Parkinson’s disease underscores the need for continued research into its causes, treatments, and potential cures, guiding funding towards the most
promising areas.
“Projected increases in Parkinson’s disease prevalence provide quantifiable data to support advocacy efforts, securing greater attention and resources for research, care, and support services
including better funding.
“By understanding the future burden of Parkinson’s disease, we can better prepare to meet the challenges ahead and improve
outcomes for people affected by this debilitating disease.”
Symptoms of Parkinson’s to know
Parkinson’s is a progressive neurological condition.
This means that it causes problems in the brain and gets worse over time.
People with Parkinson’s don’t have enough of the chemical dopamine in their brain because some of the nerve cells that make it have stopped working.
Symptoms start to appear when the brain can’t make enough dopamine to control movement properly, usually around the age of 50 – but some people might see the first signs in their 40s.
There are over 40 different symptoms associated with Parkinson’s disease, but common ones include:
- Tremors
- Rigidity (stiffness)
- Slowness of movement
- Issues with balance
- Mild memory and thinking problems
- Sleep problems
- Pain
- Anxiety and depression
- Loss of sense of smell
- Issues with your bladder or bowels
How Parkinson’s affects someone can change from day to day, even hour to hour, and not everyone will get these symptoms.
Who’s at risk of Parkinson’s?
Parkinson’s disease is caused by a loss of nerve cells in the part of the brain called the substantia nigra.
Nerve cells in this part of the brain are responsible for producing a chemical called dopamine.
Dopamine acts as a messenger between the parts of the brain and nervous system that help control and co-ordinate body movements.
If these nerve cells die or become damaged, the amount of dopamine in the brain is reduced.
This means the part of the brain controlling movement cannot work as well as normal, causing movements to become slow and abnormal.
It’s not known why the loss of nerve cells associated with Parkinson’s disease occurs, but possible causes include:
- Genetics – Parkinson’s can run in families, though this is rare
- Environmental factors – pesticides and herbicides used in farming and traffic or industrial pollution may contribute to the condition
Source: NHS
