Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted a US proposal for a partial ceasefire in the war against Ukraine following a lengthy phone call with US President Donald Trump. If Ukraine now agrees to the terms of the partial ceasefire, both countries will pause attacks on energy infrastructure for a thirty-day period. During the high stakes call, Putin also committed to begin negotiations over a possible maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.
The White House readout following the Trump-Putin call was fairly upbeat, but in truth the outcomes fell far short of expectations. One week earlier, Ukraine had unconditionally backed a United States initiative for a complete thirty-day ceasefire in a move that was widely hailed as a breakthrough toward a potential peace deal. So far, Russia has refused to reciprocate. Instead, Putin has sought to insert a series of conditions that indicate an unwillingness to compromise on the key issues driving the Russia invasion of Ukraine.
Today’s telephone conversation appears to have been no different. While Putin offered some minor concessions, he also made clear that he has not abandoned his maximalist goal of subjugating Ukraine. Crucially, the Kremlin statement following the call stressed that Russia’s key condition for any progress toward peace is “the complete cessation of foreign military aid and sharing intelligence with Kyiv.” In other words, Putin continues to insist that peace will only be possible once Ukraine has been disarmed and left at his mercy. It does require much imagination to anticipate the kind of peace Putin has in mind.
Putin insistence on an end to all Western military support for Ukraine is not new. Since the very first days of the invasion, he has been warning the West not to arm Ukraine. He has also consistently identified the complete demilitarization of Ukraine as one of his primary war aims.
During failed peace talks in spring 2022, Russian negotiators demanded an approximately 95 percent reduction in the size of Ukraine’s army, which was to become a skeleton force of just fifty thousand troops. For the past three years, the Kremlin has repeated these calls for a drastic reduction in the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including severe restrictions on the categories of weapons Ukraine can possess.
Russian officials have also frequently pressed Ukraine’s Western allies to end all military assistance, while boasting to domestic audiences that this would soon force Kyiv to capitulate. Speaking in October 2023 at the annual Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi, Putin predicted that Ukraine would have “a week left to live” if the country’s Western partners ended weapons deliveries. “Imagine if supplies stopped tomorrow. They would have a week left to live until ammunition was exhausted,” he stated.
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The Kremlin has been similarly insistent on the need to isolate Ukraine internationally and deprive the country of potential allies. In addition to a ban on all Western arms supplies, Moscow demands that Ukraine must voluntarily abandon its NATO ambitions and accept enforced neutrality. Putin claims this is necessary as NATO expansion poses a military threat to Russia. However, he himself said Russia had “no problem” when neighboring Finland announced plans to join the alliance in 2022.
Most recently, Russia has firmly rejected the idea of deploying peacekeepers from NATO member countries to Ukraine in order to monitor any future ceasefire agreement. This rejection is particularly revealing, given the fact that the same NATO troops are already present in six countries bordering Russia without sparking World War III. It would certainly seem that Putin’s real problem is with Ukraine rather than NATO.
Putin told Trump today that he wants a lasting peace, but his negotiating position suggests otherwise. The Kremlin dictator’s preferred peace terms envision a disarmed and defenseless Ukraine with virtually no army of its own and no chance of receiving any meaningful military aid from the international community. If he achieves this goal, it is surely only a matter of time before Putin renews his invasion and completes the conquest of Ukraine.
Peter Dickinson is editor of the ’s UkraineAlert service.
The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the , its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.
Image: Artem Priakhin / SOPA Images via Reuters Connect
