Last year there was a fact that formalized that the rhetoric of “spatial war” was a fact. It was known, in some cases it was intuited, that the United States, Russia and China had transferred their confrontations hundreds of kilometers from the earth through their satellites. However, in December any glimpse of doubt was cleared: the United States designed the foundations of a war attack in space. Now they have detected something unusual, and their source comes from Moscow.
First was surveillance. In March, the CNN said that the Pentagon had intensified the surveillance of the spatial activities of Russia and China in the face of growing evidence that both powers are testing new offensive abilities in orbit. As American defense officials then said, Russia had carried out coordinated satellite exercises that simulate attack and defense tactics, including maneuvers in which several satellites surround and isolate another, demonstrating a possible scenario of neutralization of enemy ships.
China, on the other hand, had executed similar maneuvers, including closed satellite formation and offensive approach practices, actions that reinforce suspicions about the growing militarization of outer space.
Three satellites and a stranger. Thus we arrive at the news of these days. Russia has launched three highly secret satellites (Kosmos 2581, 2582 and 2583) that have revived concerns about a possible preparation for the space war. On February 2, the satellites were sent to orbit aboard a Soyuz rocket, without Moscow revealing details about their purpose.
Not just that. To the unusual maneuvers they have performed since their deployment, the recent appearance of a mysterious object has been added, possibly released by the Kosmos 2583 satellite on March 18, whose strange drawn has led to analysts and intelligence agencies in the West to observe them with concern. The United States space force has already cataloged the new object, while some speculation suggests that these satellites could be practicing orbital “attack and defense tactics, designed to isolate or neutralize enemy satellites in case of a future conflict.
Trajectory of the object detected
Theories Although astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, of Harvard-Smithsonian Center, has clarified the alarmist interpretations by considering that the observed maneuvers may simply be due to similar orbits, recent history also reinforces skepticism.
In 2022, Russia had already launched Kosmos 2558 in the same orbital trajectory as an American military satellite, which was interpreted as an act of spatial espionage. The geopolitical context and the background of the Kremlin in the field of undercover technologies raise the suspicions that this new satellite trio may be carrying out surveillance missions, interception tests or tests of antisatellite technologies, although for now there are no conclusive evidence of hostile actions.
The “conquest” of space. We said it at the beginning. The maneuvers attributed to the Kosmos 2581-2583 satellites are framed in a broader scenario in which both Russia and China would be exploring new orbital combat abilities. Recent CNN reports quote officials of the United States Department of Defense, who say that both countries are carrying out military training in low orbits, a key zone for their proximity to the land and its frequent use for communication, recognition and intelligence satellites.
This trend reinforces the fear that space will be consolidated as a new field of strategic confrontation, one where powers develop technologies to deactivate, interfere or even destroy enemy space assets.
Uncertainty and surveillance. So far we write, the nature or function of the object released in March has not been determined with certainty, which increases the tension around this satellite trio. McDowell explained that between February 25 and March 14, proximity operations were registered between the satellites, and that two of them passed near Kosmos 2583 on March 7, although it could not be confirmed whether there was an attempt at offensive coordination.
Even so, the US space force maintains a close surveillance on the orbital movements and patterns of these artifacts, given the possibility that it is covert tests of new military capacities in space, a dimension that is no longer purely scientific or commercial, but also tactical.
The challenge of “interpreting.” In the background, a problem that until now had not taken place in space, that of the opacity of the nations with respect to the missions of their satellites and the repeated use of covert technologies in their space operations that make it difficult to obtain certainty. In an environment where the simple fact of sharing orbits or making approaches between satellites can have both harmless and aggressive aims, analysts, in this case of the United States, must move between caution and prevention.
As we explain, while the calls are multiplied to establish clear international standards on space in space, Washington and its allies already consider space domain as an active strategic theater, and each new mysterious object, such as the newly released by Kosmos 2583, adds a more tension layer to technological and military rivalry in orbit.
Image | POT
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