Total Cargo Decline Estimated at 15% for 2025
China-to-US shipments might be down a full 25%, but the entire US shipping industry will likely see a 15% reduction, according to the latest estimates.
More specifically, imports across the second half of 2025 will likely drop 20% over the same time last year, according to Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett in a statement covered by DC Velocity. Given shipments earlier in the year were elevated in anticipation of this shift, the total cargo volume across the year will decline an average of 15% at a minimum.
As you might expect from the current whirlwind news cycle, the 90-day pause and the just-revealed additional Chinese import hike happened too recently to be included in these estimates. The adjusted decline may be slightly more.
