In 1987, weatherman Michael Fish made history by saying, “Don’t worry, there isn’t!” in response to fears a hurricane was coming.
His prediction, based on Met Office forecasts, failed to notice the looming storm which was the worst for 300 years, and would tear apart the UK leaving millions without power.
But such a blunder is unlikely to happen again, especially now the Met Office has announced its official switchover to a new supercomputer, which will use 50 billion observations a day to calculate forecasts we can rely on.
‘New and currently impossible products’
Charlie Ewan, chief data and information officer at the Met Office, said the computer had to be massive to deal with 200 to 300 terabytes of data per day.
He told Metro: ‘The next decade could transformational for weather forecasting, and this phase allows us to plan and look ahead to the next generation of more accurately and timely weather predictions.’
He said that over its lifetime, it will ‘enable warnings of UK severe weather events to be issued further in advance, thus helping to protect communities, infrastructure and economic activity via more informed decision-making.’
So, if there is a big storm coming, this time we will have time to prepare.
In the ‘near future’, the new tech could make 14-day forecasts nearly as accurate as seven-day forecasts, giving much more time to plan a last minute break making the most of sunshine.
The computer could also advance climate research across the world, giving us more of any idea of what’s going on with weather – such as why the jet stream has lately been doing some strange things.
While you may not notice a difference immediately, as the computer gets going it will provide longer range predictions and higher resolution modelling, which will mean forecasters have more confidence in telling us what the weather will be like.
Met Office forecasts
You probably rely on them, even if you don’t use their app or website: their forecasts are used in aviation, defense, critical infrastructure, shipping, and even for looking at the weather in space.
They are also regularly featured in Metro, informing readers whether they should pack their umbrella, their suncream, or leave the house at all.
Founded in 1854, the Met Office is part of the UK government. It has used supercomputers to do the complex maths and modelling involved in forecasting for 60 years, but this is the first time they have trusted an outside organisation with running one.
Mr Ewan said the computer would allow the Met Office to develop ‘new and currently impossible products and services’, running complicated simulations to look at many possibilities of how the atmosphere could look.
The Met Office is also looking at how they can harness AI to analyse and predict the weather.
‘We don’t know yet how our CPU-based supercomputer services will be augmented with machine learning,’ he said in a blog about the announcement. ‘A lot of research is being done at the Met Office and elsewhere to find out.’
Darren Hardman, the chief executive of Microsoft UK, said: ‘The UK has always been at the forefront of scientific endeavour and we’re proud to support the Met Office in advancing the boundaries of weather prediction.
‘By moving its supercomputer into the Azure cloud, the Met Office can unlock the full potential of its data, delivering even greater services to its customers and discovering insights that can benefit communities all around the world facing climate challenges.’
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