That the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 activated all alerts in the rest of Europe is beyond doubt. First there was a warm way of “rearme”, then ideas of the past and the first initiatives (special mention to the automobile industry) began to appear) where it was perceived that something was brewing. It was then confirmed that it would start on the roads, with Italy giving the exit gun with an impossible architecture for war propaganda.
However, nothing like satellites to betray the real state of things.
Unprecedented reindustrialization. The Financial Times told exclusively. The European arms industry has entered an accelerated expansion phase, multiplying the usual growth rate by three in times of peace and adding more than 7 million square meters in new facilities.
An analysis of the medium based on radar data from Sentinel-1 satellites of the European Space Agency, which covered 150 facilities of 37 companies, reveals that one third of the locations dedicated to ammunition and missiles shows clear signs of expansion or construction. It is a generational change that is displacing the production model “just in time” towards an industrial base capable of sustaining a prolonged warfoot, with deep implications for the defensive capacity of the continent and the sustainability of the supply to Ukraine.
The role of the ASAP program. Much of this expansion is linked to the European Act In Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) program, equipped with 500 million euros to solve bottlenecks in the manufacture of ammunition and missiles. Of the 88 sites associated with ASAP, 20 show substantial extensions, including new factories and roads, while 14 record minor improvements such as parking.
The plants dedicated to projectiles (especially 155 mm artillery) concentrate the bulk of the works, reflecting their strategic priority. Thanks to these investments, the annual ammunition production capacity in Europe will go from 300,000 units before the war to about 2 million at the end of this year, with companies such as Rheinmetall, increasing their production of 155 mm projectiles of 70,000 in 2022 to 1.1 million planned by 2027.
Outstanding expansions. In Várpalota, Hungary, Rheinmetall and the state -owned N7 Holding have opened a 30 mm ammunition for the KF41 LYNX combat vehicle, which in the future will manufacture artillery projectiles, ammunition for Leopard 2 and Panther, and will feature its own explosive plant.
In Germany, MBDA extends its headquarters in Schrobehause with support of 10 million euros from the ASAP and an NATO contract for 5.6 billion dollars to produce up to 1,000 Patriot Gem-T missiles on European soil. Norway has opened a Kongsberg plant, financed with 62 million dollars, while BAE Systems invests more than 150 million pounds in the United Kingdom, including multiplication for 16 of its 155 mm projectile production capacity in its Glascoed plant, Wales.
Economic impact. Although potential production increases, industrial and governmental responsible warn that the actual volume will still be below the installed capacity, and that certain areas remain vulnerable. Experts such as Fabian Hoffmann point out that, in order to sustain deterrence against Russia, NATO must reinforce its long -range missile capacity, whose manufacturing is limited by the low production of miniature reaction engines and explosive loads.
These elements, together with aerial defense systems and drones, appear as possible objectives of a new European program of 1.5 billion euros that would replicate the ASAP model and encourage joint purchase.
The delicate balance. The current growth is the result of both European funds and national orders, reflecting a political convergence around the need to increase industrial mass. However, this impulse faces the budget pressure we have already spoken, together with the complexity of supply chains and global technological competition.
In the words of Baiba Braže, Foreign Minister of Latvia, it is a “very positive and necessary” advance, but whose effectiveness will depend on the industry being ready to respond to the growing demand of NATO and that public resources are used with effect. If you want also, the challenge for Europe does not only seem to increase productive capacity, but to maintain it in the long term, ensuring that the effort to rearms that is promoted so much is not diluted if the political or economic context changes.
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