On September 19, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a steep $100,000 fee on H-1B non-immigrant visas. After being met with varying responses, the White House clarified that the fee hike applied only to foreign applicants in the process of filing petitions.
Several US employers, including JPMorgan, the global investment bank which employed 2,440 staff on the non-immigrant visa this year—several of them being Indian IT workers—have asked their H-1B hires not to leave the country until the dust settles.
Trump’s executive order, which took effect on September 21, aims to course-correct on what the administration calls the “most abused” US visa and says a sharp financial disincentive will restore hiring discipline.
For African tech workers who were intending to begin the process to migrate to the US, as well as their potential employers, the new order could have several ripple effects.
What this means for Silicon Valley hiring
For small and mid-sized technology companies, the new order could mean that an entire recruitment budget would be needed to sponsor a single talent. What this implies is that these firms may pause all international hires through the H-1B channel except for truly exceptional talent. Better-funded companies will continue to sponsor selectively for talent they regard as mission-critical.
This is exactly the kind of outcome the White House sought. By raising the cost of admission, the policy targets perceived abuse of the visa while making indiscriminate mass hiring from overseas uneconomic. Employers will have to justify, in cash and paperwork, that the worker is exceptional enough to merit the expenditure. It raises the bar for what counts as “exceptional talent” and forces petitioners to be precise in whom they sponsor.
Large tech firms are in a different position. Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Apple, ranked among the top recipients of H-1B approvals in recent filings, and will be able to spread any new fee across far larger payrolls. Amazon, with more than 30,000 approved applications between fiscal 2023 and the first nine months of fiscal 2025, accounted for more approvals than many countries’ entire H-1B populations.
That concentration means the reform could have the unintended consequence of further skewing the market in favour of the biggest firms: smaller companies will hire less from overseas, while the largest firms will remain capable of buying access to global talent.
There is also a legal and political caveat. The proclamation gives the Department of Homeland Security and the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) broad discretion to grant exemptions for certain industries, professions, or companies.
In practice, the largest tech firms are best positioned to lobby for those carve-outs. It would undercut the policy’s stated aim of curbing abuse, while reinforcing the advantage of incumbents with deep pockets and political influence.
Second-order effects
The impact of the $100,000 fee extends well beyond visa statistics. If H-1B filings decline, the demand for housing, cars, insurance, and other everyday services in US tech hubs will shrink. Landlords and local businesses would feel the effect. Oluwaleke Fakorede, co-founder and CTO of GoWagr, a Nigerian startup that enables users to win money through skill-based prediction contests, underscored this spillover.
“There are also second-order effects on non-H1B US residents, including African professionals,” said Fakorede, who relocated to the US on an H-1B before transferring to the O-1 visa. “If H-1B workers leave, demand for things like rent, cars, insurance, and other living expenses could go down.”
Employers are likely to adapt in different ways. Some will lean harder on remote hiring, expand regional tech hubs, or move roles to offices outside the US where immigration rules are less restrictive.
“$100,000 is a lot of money,” said Fakorede. “Companies are most likely going to start moving offices to other countries. This happened before in Trump’s previous term when he cancelled the H-1B premium processing time, so everyone had to wait four to six months for approval. At the time, he also stopped immigrant interviews in many countries. Microsoft’s response was to transfer those affected from its Washington office to Toronto.”
Meanwhile, both workers and employers are expected to explore alternative US visa pathways.
“There are multiple alternatives, including temporary work visas and green card options,” said Xavier Francis, a US immigration lawyer at Francis Law. “The O-1 is available to individuals who can demonstrate extraordinary ability. The L-1 is open to transfers from overseas offices. For permanent residency, the EB-2 National Interest Waiver and EB-1A remain options for highly accomplished professionals.”
Yet the environment remains uncertain. LaToya McBean, an immigration lawyer and founder of McBean Law, a firm which has helped several African professionals migrate to the US through family-based and business immigration pathways, cautioned them against assuming stability.
“African professionals who are interested in working in the United States on a work visa or entering as a foreign student should be aware of the tumultuous immigration policy environment we’re facing under the Trump Administration,” she said. “Both foreign workers and students should be prepared for the possibility of visa revocation or a significant policy change that could impact their stay in the United States.”
Will new emigration trends form?
It is tempting to treat Trump’s new visa policy as a single lever that will redirect talent flows overnight. Yet the reality is more complex. For African talent, Silicon Valley still holds unrivalled appeal.
High concentrations of capital, dense founder networks, seasoned mentors and VCs, and lifestyle advantages still make the US attractive for Africans who want to scale, said Fakorede. He pointed to Silicon Valley’s track record, which gave him precedents for building GoWagr that he says are lacking in Africa. This gravitational pull does not evaporate because a fee is introduced.
“I believe talents still want access to the US market, and employers still want global talents. Policies come and go,” said Oluyomi Ojo, team lead at AgoraVisa, a startup which helps Africans migrate to the US on the O-1 and EB visas. “At the moment, we expect some companies to go ahead and make that payment on behalf of talents they desperately need. If you are that type of talent, then you are good.”
Ojo noted that there will be movement on a few fronts. First, an uptick in applications for alternatives such as the O-1 visa for extraordinary ability and the L-1 intra-company transfer route, both of which are not subject to the H-1B cap and are not targeted by the $100,000 fee. Immigration lawyer Francis also predicted increased demand for these options, noting they avoid annual quotas and the new charge.
Second, other countries will press their advantage. The UK’s Global Talent visa is already structured to attract leaders in science and digital technology, and officials in London on Monday have discussed making the UK more price-competitive in the wake of the US decision.
On October 1, China is introducing a “K visa,” modelled in part on the US H-1B, to attract young science and technology professionals. Canada’s Global Skills Strategy (GSS) continues to provide fast-tracked routes for in-demand workers. Japan has promoted partnerships with African cities through the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), which recently launched a ‘hometown’ initiative linking Kisarazu with Nigeria. However, Japanese authorities have stressed that such programmes do not confer special immigration privileges, but serve as cultural and economic exchanges.
Africa’s options and the diaspora economy
Trump’s policy might have a small impact on remittances and builder networks. Diasporan Africans send money back home to their loved ones, and those flows matter at scale. Nigeria alone received $21 billion in remittances in 2024, according to the World Bank, much of it from the US.
Yet H-1B visa holders account for only a sliver of that total. With just over 2,000 Nigerian approvals last year, their contribution to the broader diaspora economy is marginal. Even if fewer Africans secure H-1Bs in the coming years, the immediate effect on aggregate remittances will be limited.
Segun Cole, founder of Massai, a Nigerian startup that helps founders raise VC funding, argued that the remittance debate misses the deeper opportunity.
“Short-term remittances may decrease, but long-term wealth creation increases,” said Cole. “An engineer earning $200,000 remotely in Lagos contributes more to the local economy than someone sending $2,000 monthly from San Francisco while enriching US landlords.”
Where the impact may be felt more sharply is in networks. Diasporan angels and high-earning talent often invest in local startups. As the cost of securing H-1B increases, some professionals who currently write cheques into African startups may be forced to redirect that money toward emigration costs. The shift could cut both ways, reducing diaspora investment in Africa in the short term, while also creating incentives for more capital to be anchored locally over time.
Joe Kinvi, founder partner at angel investment syndicate Hoaq, said he was reassured by the White House clarification that existing H-1B holders are unaffected.
“Oftentimes governments adjust quickly in the short term, and I think we want to give them a couple of weeks to truly assess the impact,” said Kinvi, who runs Borderless, a network that helps diasporan Africans fund local tech startups.
Integrating returning talent into Africa’s markets
If tougher barriers to US migration keep African tech workers at home, or bring some back, the impact will depend on how well local ecosystems can absorb them. Appetite is not the problem. Infrastructure and capital are. A senior engineer returning to Lagos or Nairobi creates much more value if there is stable electricity, fast internet, and predictable regulatory frameworks to support their work.
On the builder side, some professionals who decide not to migrate at all might decide to continue working in distributed teams, earning Silicon Valley salaries while living in Africa, freeing up time and capital to build side projects in their home markets.
“We are talking about redirecting talent for [Africa’s] digital infrastructure development,” said Cole. “The same engineers who would have spent 10 years building wealth for American shareholders are now available to build foundational systems for 1.4 billion Africans.”
Students could also reconsider their paths. Many African graduates rely on the Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme as a bridge into the American workforce, often followed by a transfer to the H-1B. If that route becomes more expensive, more talent may return home or seek opportunities elsewhere.
“African students in US universities become the bridge generation,” Cole said. “They’ll return home with global education but African context—exactly what our startup ecosystems need to compete internationally while serving local markets.”
On the talent side, integration into the local workforce is less straightforward. Silicon Valley-exposed professionals carry global experiences, higher pay expectations, and workplace norms that do not always match African realities.
Employers might have to adjust compensation and management practices to attract them, while returnees will have to recalibrate to an environment with fewer resources and less predictability. It could also create a competition dynamic, where local companies will opt for returnees over local talent, deepening inequality, and crowding out the domestic workforce.
“I don’t think that is going to happen,” said Fakorede. “But it will be a blowout if it does.”
What to watch next
The immediate effect of the executive order will likely be a drop in new H-1B filings from companies unwilling or unable to pay the $100,000 fee. Demand will shift toward alternative US visas, like the O-1 for extraordinary ability or the L-1 for intra-company transfers.
At the same time, other countries are expanding talent visa programmes to attract highly-skilled STEM workers in the wake of Trump’s decision. African governments have yet to act. Whether Africa’s top talent will choose to explore these new hubs, be tempted to force moves to the US, or opt to return, remains an open question.
“Some African countries that want to win and are serious about technology can allow other Africans on H-1Bs to transfer their visas to a work permit kind of setup in their country,” said Fakorede. “Countries like Kenya, Rwanda are definitely tech-forward.”
The $100,000 fee is a blunt instrument. Politically, it attempts to stop indiscriminate visa use; economically, its effects are more complex. It blocks the easiest route for mid-sized employers, strengthens the largest tech firms, and creates openings for other countries, including African markets, to attract top builders.
“It’s a net positive for our local workforce in the sense that less highly-skilled talent will migrate,” said Kinvi. “But even [Trump’s new immigration policy] doesn’t mean talents don’t have other places to go. If they really want to leave, they will find a way, regardless of international policies.”
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