Everyone has their biases, and I might as well reveal mine up front: I want startups to go public.
It’s what reporters like to see. Finally, a chance to peek under the hood of the buzziest unicorns to see their revenue, growth rates and largest shareholder stakes. And while most of those companies lose money, an IPO filing provides a glimpse of gross margins and a sense of when a company might reach profitability.
All this is to say that the mere possibility of a public offering — as was teased for Anthropic in a Financial Times article late Tuesday — is an exciting development for those of us lamenting the paucity of unicorn IPOs in recent months.
Of course, no company goes public just to satiate the curiosity of that negligible portion of the population that lives for S-1 filings. The primary reasons are far more pragmatic: To raise money, benefit from a higher profile and potential valuation boost that comes with a public listing, and offer a path to liquidity for founders, employees and early investors.
The draws are big enough that it behooves the most high-profile private companies to have preparations in place for a public listing, even if they do end up delaying or scrapping it. In a similar vein, Reuters reported a few weeks ago that OpenAI is laying the groundwork for a potential IPO of its own.
The valuations are enormous
The valuations the generative AI giants are seeking would sound fantastical were they not backed up by both private markets and ever-climbing stocks of already public AI behemoths.
OpenAI is reportedly eyeing an initial public valuation of up to $1 trillion — double its last reported private valuation of $500 billion in a secondary share sale last month. It is reportedly eyeing a public filing as early as the second half of 2026.
Anthropic is currently said to be pursuing fresh funding at a private valuation of more than $300 billion. So, it would presumably seek an even higher market cap in a public offering, although it’s yet unclear how high.
I won’t opine on what valuations seem sensible for these iconic yet still deeply unprofitable companies. However, for context, it’s worth pointing out that no American venture-backed company that’s ever gone public has notched an initial valuation even close to these levels.
Meta, which went public on Nasdaq as Facebook in 2012, is still the record-holder, per Crunchbase data. It went public at an initial valuation of $104 billion — barely over one-tenth what OpenAI is said to be seeking.
Next on this list is Coinbase, at $86 billion, followed by Uber at $82.4 billion. Only six VC-funded companies have debuted at $40 billion or more, per Crunchbase, listed below.
Significantly, these numbers reflect the valuations at which companies priced shares, not how much they were worth in first-day trading. When Figma went public this summer, for instance, shares more than tripled in first-day trading, which took it to well over the $40 billion mark even though it priced below that.
Could 2026 finally be the IPO year?
If public investors are ready and willing to buy into OpenAI at its talked-about valuation, it sounds like an effort worth undertaking for the company. Ditto for Anthropic, particularly if it manages to get to market first, thus diminishing some of the spotlight perpetually shined on its rival.
Ever since the startup IPO boom period of 2020-2022 came to a conclusion, market watchers keep trying to predict when we’ll see another. Hopes that 2025 would be the year are now fading. Although we’ve seen a few big, well-received startup IPOs, activity has remained muted.
Maybe 2026 will be the year. Record-setting offerings from the biggest GenAI names certainly wouldn’t hurt in turning up the volume.
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Illustration: Dom Guzman
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