The global semiconductor industry will enter 2026 in the midst of an unprecedented memory crisis, which threatens to collapse consumer electronics. Supply shortages will continue to drive up prices and will have a strong impact on all customer marketsespecially in the most important ones, such as PCs and smartphones. Prices for DRAM and flash-based storage such as SSDs have already risen sharply in 2025, and industry analysts warn that the supply imbalance could persist well into 2027.
According to IDC, memory demand will significantly exceed supply, driven primarily by rapid expansion of AI infrastructure. Data centers and enterprise servers require much more memory per system than consumer devices, and large manufacturers have prioritized these segments for their high profit margins.
As a result, production capacity has shifted from conventional DRAM and NAND used in smartphones and PCs to specialized memories such as high-bandwidth HBM memory and RDIMMs used in servers. A confirmation of where the market is going can be found in the historical record for server sales.
This reallocation of capacity is having a direct impact on consumer devices. With fewer wafers available for general purpose memory, prices have increased and availability has decreased. IDC expects DRAM supply growth in 2026 to remain below historical standards, at around 16% year-on-year, and NAND supply growth at around 17%.
The impact of the memory crisis
In the market of smart mobilesthe shortage is expected to reverse the long-term trend of constantly improving specifications at stable prices. Memory represents a significant part of the cost of a phone, especially in mid-range models. As costs rise, manufacturers are likely to increase final retail prices, reduce memory configurations, or delay upgrades.
Brands that rely on high volumes and tight margins, such as Xiaomi, Realme, OPPO or Vivo, are expected to face greater pressure. Apple and Samsung are better positioned thanks to their long-term supply agreements, although even they are likely to limit the increase in RAM in flagship models in 2026. IDC estimates that global smartphone shipments could decline by up to 5.2% if shortages persist. Average selling prices are expected to rise across the market, with steeper increases at the lower end.
The PC market faces a similar challenge. The shortage coincides with a Windows refresh cycle and the industry’s trend toward PCs with AI features, which typically require more memory. Manufacturers such as Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer and ASUS have already warned their customers about Price increases, with some announcing increases of 15 to 20% for the second half of 2026. Commercial computers will be especially affected.
At the same time, the higher cost of memory could slow the adoption of AI PCs, as systems with 16 GB or more of RAM will become increasingly more expensive. IDC ensures that memory shortage will mark a structural change, not a short-term cycle. For consumers, this is likely to translate into higher prices, fewer specification updates and longer replacement cycles for both smartphones and PCs.
