A new TrendForce report outlines the challenges notebook makers are expected to face in 2026, with surging memory prices chief among them. Apple, however, is expected to be less exposed. Here are the details.
Apple less exposed to market-wide memory constraints
TrendForce has revised its forecast for the notebook market for 2026, lowering its prediction to 173 million unit shipments, a 5.4% drop when compared with 2025.
From the report:
TrendForce’s recent findings show that, amid a sluggish economic recovery and cautious consumer spending, surging memory prices are squeezing notebook brands’ profit margins and pricing freedom. Consequently, TrendForce has reduced its 2026 global projection for notebook shipments to a 5.4% YoY decrease, totaling around 173 million units. This shift indicates a more conservative approach by brands toward inventory management, promotions, and product setups in response to increasing cost pressures.
The report also notes that if memory constraints don’t improve, the shipment drop could hit 10.1%, although Apple could be less exposed than its competitors:
Despite increasing memory costs, [Apple’s] integrated supply chain and robust pricing power allow for greater flexibility in adjusting its product lineup. Additionally, Apple’s substantial and steady procurement volumes, along with a clear product release schedule and highly predictable demand planning, facilitate securing priority cooperation with memory suppliers.
TrendForce notes that despite the bad timing, Apple is expected to benefit from “ongoing supply chain efficiencies, scale benefits” when it introduces what has been reported as a low-cost MacBook in the spring of 2026:
“[…] competitive pricing should help the product attract buyers, boosting market penetration and sustained shipment performance.”
Finally, the report notes that while LCD panel shipments are expected to fall 7.9% year over year in 2026, OLED shipments should continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace.
Update, 3:42 p.m. ET: IDC has also released a report, warning that PC shipments could see a drop of up to 9% in 2026 as a result of what it called “ an unprecedented memory chip shortage,” a situation they claim “could persist well into 2027”:
“In the more moderate downside scenario, we could see the PC market contract by 4.9% compared with a 2.4% year-on-year decline in the November forecast. Under a more pessimistic scenario, the decline could deepen to 8.9%. The severity of each scenario will largely depend on how long the current supply constraints persist through 2026.
Under these downside scenarios, PC average selling prices would likely rise, increasing by 4% to 6% in a moderate scenario, and by 6% to 8% in a pessimistic scenario.”
In the report, they note that while they had been monitoring the shortage and factored it into their November device forecasts, the situation has “become more acute since publishing,” due to the increasing demand surge from IA data centers.
IDC also notes that this shortage will likely impact the smartphone market as well, albeit Android vendors could face the bulk of the impact:
The global smartphone market, particularly Android manufacturers, is facing a threat in 2026. The industry’s decade-long trend of democratizing specs by bringing flagship features to affordable smartphones is reversing.
The cost structure of a smartphone is heavily dependent on the memory used. For a mid-range device, memory can represent 15-20% of the total bill of materials (BOM), while for a high-end flagship device, it is around 10-15%. As memory prices continue to surge, OEMs will likely have to raise prices significantly, cut specifications or both.
Like in the TrendForce report, IDC notes that Apple’s relationship with its suppliers might help it better navigate the shortage, with an important caveat:
In the high end of the market, Apple and Samsung face pressure but are structurally hedged. Its cash reserves and long-term supply agreements allow it to secure memory supply 12-24 months in advance. On the other hand, new flagship models in 2026 will likely have no RAM upgrades, sticking to 12GB for Pro models rather than increasing to 16GB. It is also unlikely that current models will see the same price erosion seen after the introduction of the latest model.
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