The old continent is older than ever, literally. Because their average age is already around 50 years old and the birth rate shows that, except in Monaco, our sons and daughters are not enough of a replacement (the “magic” figure is 2.1). So much so that it can be said that Europe is shrinking, something that has not happened since the Black Death.
Old Europe vs young Nigeria. The latest Eurostat update shows an average birth rate of 1.38 babies per woman in the EU and 3.6 million births in 2023 for a population of around 450 million. If we set a “Eurovision” and expand the borders, including states like the United Kingdom or Russia, the figure rises to 6.3 million.
It is still little, especially if we take into account that 7.5 million were born in Nigeria alone in that same year, that it has a birth rate of 4.5 babies per woman and that the average age is around 18 years. A huge Lagos is in the making. Note: There are 222 million inhabitants in Nigeria.
A picture is worth a thousand words. At Brilliant Maps they have synthesized this data into a very simple map with this devastating fact that shows the rapid population growth of Sub-Saharan Africa, specifically Nigeria, which has one of the youngest populations in the world. A single country, with a much smaller area, surpasses an entire continent in births.
Brilliant Maps map with data from Our World in Data
In perspective. Taking United Nations data for Europe and Nigeria from 1900 to 2100 (until 2023 the data is accurate, from then on the UN predictions are used) the evolution and trend leaves no doubt about the change in figures produced in the last century: in 1950, 12 million people were born in Europe and 1.7 million in Nigeria, which had a population of 548 and 37 million people respectively.
In 2000, 7.3 and 5.5 million were born in Europe and Nigeria, which had a population of 728 and 126 million people. By 2100, less than 5 million births in Europe compared to 6.6 million in Nigeria and 592 million inhabitants for the old continent compared to 476 million in the African country. The turnaround is such that on Reddit there is a graph that, although more qualitative than quantitative, summarizes it well:
The population difference between Europe and Africa. reddit
Why is it important. Beyond statistical curiosity, we are facing a paradigm shift that will define the 21st century. If “demography is destiny”, as they attribute to Auguste Comte, Europe’s destiny points to change (renew or die, never better said). Of course, Nigeria’s population explosion is not la vie en rose either.
In Europe. Europe’s demographic winter is raising alarm bells for its welfare state simply because the population pyramid is inverting, thus threatening its intergenerational social model: first, by delaying the retirement age.
On the horizon, the cut in benefits even though there are many people who are not living the “cannon life.” On the other hand, the market has found a vein in the “silver” economy in the form of care for the elderly: without going any further, those related professions are already set to skyrocket in the coming years.
In Nigeria. Having 7.5 million new people in a territory is quite a challenge. On paper, it is a fantastic opportunity to train and employ a mass population that can drive massive economic growth (as China has done in recent decades).
The problem is not doing it and finding yourself with unemployed and frustrated youth. On the other hand and regardless of this difficulty, such a high population increase translates into high pressure on its current infrastructure, for example there will be an urgent need to build schools or hospitals.
The communicating vessels. Given the previous perspective, the migratory flow is as inevitable as it is necessary. From old Europe, in search of labor to fill vacancies and thus manage its decline without losing its standard of living. From young Nigeria, to alleviate internal population and infrastructure pressure. A symbiosis not exempt from cultural frictions, identity tensions culminated in the rise of the extreme right and the flight of talent in the African country.
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Portada | Brilliant Maps
