IDC predicts a disturbing decline of the global smartphone market
The global memory shortage will lead to a 12.9% drop in smartphone sales in 2026, according to an IDC forecast reported by Bloomberg. The research firm’s latest estimates predict that there will be roughly 1.1 billion smartphone shipments through the year, down from 1.26 billion in 2025.While memory prices will form part of the smartphone industry’s problems, the big issue is the ongoing memory shortage, which is now expected to continue well into 2027. Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon says that availability is the main issue of the industry. “So I think the memory availability will determine the overall size of the handset market.”
Apple could be spared
Android manufacturers could take the biggest hit from the higher cost of both DRAM and NAND chips, used for handling processing tasks and storage, respectively. Due to the higher prices, memory turns into a much larger part of the overall cost of materials for the entry-level devices from companies like Xiaomi and Oppo. That adds pressure to the already thin profit margins of those devices, which will lead to fewer produced models.Apple’s case is on the opposite end of this spectrum, which could help the company fare better than its competitors. The iPhone is firmly positioned in the premium segment, which means higher profit margins that allow Apple to navigate the crisis more easily. Due to that advantage, Apple is expected to absorb the higher memory costs, and it may not raise the prices of the iPhone 18 Pro.
Last month, Apple CEO Tim Cook said that memory chip prices had a minimal effect on the company’s margins in the last quarter of the calendar year 2025. However, the company expects the crisis to have a bigger impact on its bottom line during the first quarter of 2026.
No way back for smartphone prices
IDC says that the memory shortage will continue into 2027, but its effect will last much longer. Even after the memory supplies normalize, it’s unlikely for smartphone prices to go back to the 2025 levels. That could mean a permanent increase in prices.
The days of cheap smartphones are gone.
Nabila Popal, IDC Senior Research Director, February 2026
The phones that will be most impacted by that change will be the cheapest ones. According to IDC, 170 million of the smartphones shipped in 2025 cost below $100. However, that price segment is now uneconomical to maintain.
