I earlier estimated that Apple would sell gazillions of MacBook Neo machines. TrendForce is now out with a slightly more formal estimate of four to five million units this year.
The market intelligence company also notes that Apple is headed in the opposite direction to most of its competitors …
Dramatically increased RAM prices mean that PC makers are struggling to make lower-cost machines, with many of them prioritizing their limited supply of components to their more expensive models. TrendForce notes that Apple is bucking this trend.
TrendForce’s latest projections estimate that global notebook shipments will decline 9.2% YoY in 2026, with the possibility of deeper contraction should demand remain weak. Amid simultaneous shortages and price increases in memory and CPUs—factors prompting most notebook brands to streamline product lines and adopt cautious inventory strategies—Apple has taken the opposite approach by introducing an entry-level notebook, the MacBook Neo.
The firm says there is a question mark over the impact of the 8GB memory limitation, but it still expects MacBook sales to grow significantly this year, with the Neo playing a significant role in this.
Apple’s notebook shipments [are forecast to] grow 7.7% YoY in 2026, pushing macOS market share to 13.2% […] Shipments of the MacBook Neo alone could reach 4–5 million units, depending on consumer acceptance of its 8 GB memory configuration.
Also observes that the Neo could “reshape the pricing structure and competitive landscape of the global notebook market.” In other words, when consumers can buy a MacBook for $500 to $600, companies making Windows laptops at this kind of price point are going to be doing a lot of sweating right now.
Ahead of the launch of the machine, I suggested that it would act as a gateway drug to the Mac world, and Trendforce backs this view.
By entering the entry-level segment, Apple can not only fill a key pricing gap but also establish brand loyalty among students and early-career professionals at an earlier stage.
Photo: Apple
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