Photovoltaic energy is one of the drivers of the energy transition. In 2023, it represented more than 75% of new renewable capacities installed worldwide and nearly 60% of the electricity produced by these new installations. Global capacity thus increased from around 1.1 terawatts in 2022 to almost 1.5 terawatts the following year.
The climate plays with solar production
This rise in solar power, however, has a consequence: electricity networks become more sensitive to variations in weather and climate. A team of researchers focused on one of the most influential phenomena on the global climate, El Niño. It corresponds to an abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific.
This change directly affects the factors necessary for photovoltaic production: sunlight, air temperature and even wind speed, which can cool the panels. But the most important parameter remains the solar irradiation received on the ground.
By analyzing forty years of climate data, from 1982 to 2024, the researchers show that El Niño episodes tend to reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the surface in several regions where solar is very present, as they write in Nature. La Niña, the opposite phase of the phenomenon, can on the contrary favor sunnier conditions and therefore higher production.
The effects become particularly visible during so-called “Super El Niño” episodes. Since the start of the 1980s, the planet has only experienced three: 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. During these periods, certain regions saw their solar production potential decrease significantly. In northern California, for example, the potential for photovoltaic production fell by more than 10% in winter during these events.
These episodes can cause what researchers call “ energy droughts »: periods of several months during which solar production remains abnormally low. In these situations, power grids must compensate for the lack of solar electricity by relying on other energy sources.
During previous El Niño episodes, the impact on electricity systems remained limited because solar power still occupied a modest place. Today the situation has changed. Photovoltaic energy is being deployed rapidly, with projections even suggesting that global production could increase sixfold by 2050.
Simulations carried out by the researchers indicate that a future “Super El Niño” could lead to a temporary increase in CO₂ emissions of several tens of millions of tonnes in certain regions if solar production were to fall and had to be compensated by thermal power plants.
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