First, the good news: The price increase for SSDs could soon be taking a break. According to ADATA boss Li-Pai Chen, flash contract prices are expected to rise by 35 to 40 percent in the third quarter of 2026, but analysts at the market research company TrendForce expect them to stop next year. Two developments should be sufficient to meet demand: memory manufacturers produce more NAND flash and end customers buy significantly fewer devices with NAND flash.
TrendForce estimates that prices will continue to rise in 2026 because four to five percent less NAND flash can be produced than is needed. The falling demand from end customers due to high prices is already taken into account. In the second half of 2027, there should be enough chips again to be able to meet global demand.
However, greater price reductions are not to be expected in the coming year either, as this calculation is only made possible by the reduced purchasing interest of consumers. TrendForce agrees with other forecasts that smartphone sales could fall 15 to 20 percent in 2026. For notebooks it should be around ten percent, Gartner also reported. A further slight decline is expected in 2027.
That was the excerpt from our heise-Plus article “Flash Talk: Relaxation with flash supplies, counterfeits, data centers in the sea”. With a heise Plus subscription you can read the entire article.
