AMAZON is poised to dethrone Walmart as the top-grossing retailer for the first time ever, marking a historic milestone in the decades-long battle between the retail titans.
Analysts predict Amazon’s quarterly revenue will hit $187 billion when it reports earnings Thursday evening, surpassing Walmart’s expected $180 billion.
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The figures will be confirmed when the company releases its results on February 20.
Walmart has held the top spot in quarterly sales since 2012, when it surpassed Exxon Mobil, according to LSEG senior analyst Tajinder Dhillon.
The Arkansas-based retailer has also topped the Fortune 500 since 2013, solidifying its dominance in traditional retail.
But Amazon’s rise signals a shifting landscape.
“From the competitive point of view, it shows a nimble and responsive company,” Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, told Fortune.
AMAZON’S COMPETITIVE EDGE
While Amazon and Walmart are often compared, their business models differ in key ways.
Amazon’s dominance isn’t solely due to its retail sales—it has built a financial juggernaut with its Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud computing business, which generated $90 billion in revenue in 2023.
Its advertising division has also soared, with third-quarter 2024 revenue hitting $14.3 billion, up 19% year over year.
Walmart, meanwhile, has aggressively expanded its e-commerce footprint, taking “a leaf out of Amazon’s playbook,” Saunders said.
The retailer has boosted its U.S. advertising revenue by 30% in the 12 months leading up to August 2024 and continues to refine its omnichannel strategy, blending online and physical retail.
But Walmart still reigns supreme in one key category: groceries.
Together with Sam’s Club, Walmart controls 30% of the U.S. grocery market, compared to Amazon’s 3%.
In response, Amazon has ramped up efforts in the grocery sector, launching a subscription model for unlimited delivery through Whole Foods and Amazon Fresh.
Last week, the company announced Whole Foods CEO Jason Buechel would take charge of Amazon’s worldwide grocery stores unit, signaling a more aggressive push into the sector.
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THE INEVITABLE CYCLE
Amazon may be on top today, but its reign won’t last forever, Saunders suggested.
“This all-rounded approach—where retail is at the heart of the business, but other things generate revenue around it—is a model that’s been really successful, and it’s been an exemplar for other retailers to really copy Amazon in that strategy,” he said.
And history suggests even Amazon isn’t invincible.
Founder and executive chairman Jeff Bezos reportedly told employees in 2018: “Amazon is not too big to fail.
“In fact, I predict one day Amazon will fail. Amazon will go bankrupt.”
But for now, Amazon is on track to make history — knocking Walmart from its perch as America’s top-grossing retailer for the first time in over a decade.
