Apple is set to dethrone Samsung as the world’s top smartphone maker in 2025 and is expected to maintain that lead through at least 2029, according to a market report forecast from Counterpoint Research published Wednesday.
Counterpoint projects that global shipments of smartphones from Apple will grow by 9% year over year for the third quarter of 2025, pushing it past Samsung for the first time in 14 years. Shipments of the iPhone 17 lineup, including the iPhone Air, iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max exceeded expectations, per the report. Samsung shipments grew 4.6% year over year for the same quarter.
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Counterpoint senior analyst Yang Wang said that the reception for the iPhone 17 lineup was positive, and that customers replacing their older iPhones have given the tech giant a sizeable boost. “Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” Wang said. “Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years.”
Apple has delayed some AI features, including a revamped Siri with Apple Intelligence, but that has not seemed to hurt its iPhone sales, Counterpoint noted. Sales have been higher for the iPhone 17 than they were for the iPhone 16 released last year, notably in the US and China, according to the report.
Counterpoint expects that Apple’s introduction of a foldable iPhone and budget models, like an anticipated iPhone 17E that could launch as the company moves away from an annual release cycle, will help Apple continue its dominance over the next few years. The global smartphone market share for Apple will reach 19.4%, according to Counterpoint, compared with Samsung at 18.7%.
