The launch of SpaceX’s Crew-9 mission took place over the weekend. In other words, the astronauts on Boeing’s Starliner already have a return ship (on the way) to return home, if nothing goes wrong, around February of next year. However, what seems to finally end very well could have been very different. In fact, exactly a decade ago, NASA was one signature away from changing everything.
I join the contracts. We know that now thanks to Eric Berger (of ArsTechnica), and his book Reentry: SpaceX, Elon Musk and the Reusable Rockets that Launched a Second Space Age. Some very interesting excerpts from his work have come to light through the medium where he works. For example, we now know that NASA came very close to signing its Commercial Crew Program with just one company.
And yes, that company was Boeing, so, seeing how things have gone since then, the almost “photo finish” decision to add Elon Musk’s company seems historic.
The failure of Starliner. On June 5, Boeing’s Starliner took off with NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunni Williams for a relatively short “ride.” However, the ship remained docked with the space station for three months while teams on the ground debated whether or not to return the crew aboard the troubled Starliner.
During its trip to the ISS, five of the spacecraft’s thrusters failed and it developed five helium leaks, one of which was identified before liftoff. Finally, and after much debate, NASA agrees to return the Starliner uncrewed and bring the astronauts back aboard SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft.
10 years ago. Obviously, we now have data that couldn’t have been predicted a decade ago, but considering how things turned out, choosing Boeing as its only commercial partner would have been a terrible decision on NASA’s part. At the time, however, Boeing was the most reliable option, while SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, was a newcomer that had not yet had a chance to prove itself.
It happened in 2014, and at that moment in space history, NASA was mulling over a contract that was going to define the space race for the next few years. At stake: the contract as part of the space agency’s Commercial Crew Program to develop spacecraft capable of transporting crew and cargo to the ISS.
The intrastory. Apparently, according to Berger, NASA officials were clearly leaning towards Boeing to the point of having the contracts drawn up giving it the agency’s entire budget for commercial crew, and leaving SpaceX out of the equation. In the book, sources say that during a meeting of spaceflight advisors and senior NASA officials, the majority chose Boeing over SpaceX.
There was another purely economic reason, of course. NASA had also decided to award a contract to a single company instead of two due to its tight budget. As Phil McAlister, director of NASA’s commercial crew program, told the writer, “We didn’t really have the budget for two companies at the time. Nobody thought we were going to award two. It was always like, ‘One or more,’ and the “People looked at me with disdain.”
Boeing “excellent”, SpaceX, not so much. Today we know that the contracts went to the two companies, but it was very close to not being the case. An evaluation board apparently rated the companies based on Price, fit for mission, and past performance. SpaceX had a lower bid of $2.6 billion, while Boeing asked for $4.2 billion.
As for the other two categories, Boeing far surpassed SpaceX. Boeing received an “excellent” rating for its mission suitability, that is, its evaluated ability to safely transport crew to and from the ISS, while SpaceX received a “very good” rating. Additionally, Boeing also earned a “very high” rating based on its past performance, while SpaceX received a “high” rating.
Change at the last minute. When everything was ready to sign that single contract with Boeing, something happened that changed everything. Berger explains that Boeing’s refusal to conduct a flight test of the Starliner abort system (thrusters designed to propel the vehicle if the rocket fails during launch) became a critical factor.
Because? Boeing only admitted to conducting a test of that system on the ground, which led NASA’s head of mission safety and assurance to consider the company’s offer unsatisfactory. Additionally, SpaceX’s offer had a lower asking price, making it possible for NASA to consider choosing the two companies instead of one because of what might happen.
In fact, and as we said at the beginning, the book says that the decision was so close that NASA had to rewrite its commercial crew contract to include both companies after having drafted one that only named Boeing. It’s hard to imagine how things would have turned out if NASA had only chosen Boeing’s Starliner to transport its astronauts into Earth orbit, but it’s easy to think that more than one person would be unemployed right now.
Image | NASA, SpaceX
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