Carl “Moon” Runefelt Predicted the Market Crash — And It’s Happening Now | HackerNoon

In the financial world, timing is everything. And in January 2025, Carl “Moon” Runefelt made a call that is now almost impossible to ignore. A familiar name in the crypto space, Runefelt tweeted:

“Debts are rising alongside greed and euphoria in the stock market. The signs of a financial crisis are growing. I believe we will see a big financial meltdown… Bitcoin is the Noah’s Ark in the economic flood that is coming. Get in the boat.”

At the time, markets were hot. Bitcoin had just pushed past the $100,000 mark, and stocks were continuing to climb. Optimism was everywhere, both in traditional finance and across crypto communities. Carl’s warning didn’t make headlines. It was written off as another bearish opinion during a time when nobody wanted to hear it.

But fast forward to April, and that same tweet is back in circulation for a reason.

Markets have taken a hit. Bitcoin has fallen to around $76,000. Ethereum is down too, and interest in DeFi and NFTs has cooled off. On the stock market side, the S&P 500 has dropped roughly 14 percent in just three trading days. That makes it one of the fastest and steepest short-term corrections since 1987. Suddenly, people are going back to Carl’s January post and wondering how he saw it coming.

According to Carl, it came down to one thing: the federal funds effective rate. In a follow-up , he explained that his prediction wasn’t just a guess. He was looking at a pattern that has repeated itself over the last few decades. Each time the US begins cutting interest rates after a period of raising them, a recession tends to follow. The chart is simple. Rate cuts, then a gray recession bar. Again and again.

Carl noticed that interest rates were peaking and starting to turn. To him, that signaled not just the possibility of a downturn, but the likely timing of one. Combined with high debt levels, soaring credit card usage, and the overheated mood in the markets, it all pointed to an incoming reset. That’s why in January, he said a major pullback was coming within months.

And now, that timeline is starting to play out.

On top of that, Carl doubled down with a follow-up tweet including a chart of the federal funds rate to back his claim. He wrote:

“One of the main indicators I look at when I predict this coming stock market crash and recession is the federal funds rate. Over the past decades, when they start lowering the rate, a stock market crash and recession usually follow.”

This chart, showing the relationship between falling rates and recessions, is central to Carl’s view that the current environment was unsustainable. But more importantly, Carl has a clear outlook on what happens next.

He believes the Federal Reserve will eventually bring interest rates down to zero and begin printing massive amounts of money again. When that happens, he says Bitcoin will be the best way to protect wealth. He continues to describe Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, calling it “the Noah’s Ark” for those trying to escape the consequences of a broken financial system.

Runefelt first rose to prominence through his YouTube channel The Moon Show. His story is well known in the crypto space. He went from working as a cashier in Sweden to building a global following, mostly by breaking down complex market movements in a way that’s easy to digest. He doesn’t just look at charts. He connects macro shifts with digital assets and speaks to the bigger picture.

Even with prices falling, Carl hasn’t lost confidence in Bitcoin. In his latest commentary, he says he still believes Bitcoin could hit $300,000 by the end of the year. His more bullish outlook is $1 million per BTC, especially if the Fed turns the money printer back on. If quantitative easing returns in full force, Carl believes Bitcoin could soar to all-time highs once again.

He also pointed out that short-term drops are part of the cycle. When markets panic, everything falls. But long-term investors, he says, should see this as an opportunity to buy. He even joked about selling his Bugatti to buy Ethereum, calling it “the trade of the century” if ETH rebounds to five figures.

Carl’s big takeaway is that crypto and traditional markets are more linked than ever. When stocks fall, crypto usually follows. And that connection is exactly what he was watching when he made his prediction in January. The federal funds rate, market behavior, and liquidity trends all paint the same picture.

Now, that prediction is no longer just a hot take. It’s a case study in spotting the signs before they show up in the headlines.

Looking back, Carl’s message wasn’t exaggerated. It was right on time.

And today, a lot more people are starting to pay attention.