Before finishing 2024 we advanced what was known about the last megaconstruction of China. Actually, we could not talk about “another” as if it were anything else in a long list, because it is possibly one of the most ambitious projects that are reminded of the nation: a super prey so monumental that would leave the one of the Three throats relegated to the background, producing three times more energy than the spectacular structure of more than two kilometers long. Of course, there is some problem.
The superpresa. It is a reality: China advances with the construction of the Motuo superpress in the Tibet, an unprecedented infrastructure project that, if completed, will become the largest hydroelectric plant in the world taking advantage of an abrupt slope of 2,800 meters, overcoming the capacity to The three throats (currently the largest in the world).
Located in the Grand Canyon of Yarlung Tsangpo, on the border with India, the dam has aroused environmental, geopolitical and humanitarian concerns, especially due to the lack of transparency of Beijing about its development. Experts warn that the project represents a “water pump” for millions of people in India and Bangladesh.
Seismic risks. The Tibet is one of the most seismically active regions of the planet, it has been known for a long time because it is located in the collision of the Indian plaque and the Euroasy Plate. In fact, a recent 7.1 magnitude earthquake in Shigatse caused damage to five hydroelectric dams and the death of 134 people, demonstrating how vulnerable infrastructure is in the region. Although Motuo’s work can be designed to withstand earthquakes, landslides and mud alluds could serve as a fuse and unleash, representing a direct threat to nearby populations. We speak, again, millions of people.
This risk is aggravated by the phenomenon of seismicity induced by reservoir (RTS), where the weight of the water accumulated in large dams can trigger earthquakes. An example is the Zipingpu dam, whose construction was followed by the devastating Sichuan earthquake in 2008 that charged 87,000 lives. In addition, sediment retention by the dam could reduce the fertility of the soil downstream, causing erosion in the rivers and coasts of India and Bangladesh.
Gran_Cañón Yarlung Tsangpo
Environmental impact. The dam would also alter crucial water and climatic patterns for agriculture in the region. The Tibet, where Brahmaputra is born, is one of the most biodiverse regions of the world and a key regulator of Asian climate.
The construction of the superpress could, for example, to alter the monsoon’s rainy regime, with devastating effects for agriculture in India and Bangladesh. In addition, the ecological impact of Chinese megaemblses is already evident in other international rivers, such as the Mekong, where dams have caused recurrent droughts and the intrusion of salt water in agricultural deltas.
Impact between the premises and (des) information. It is another leg that must tie the project. The Tibet is under a strong control of the Chinese Communist Party, so the magnitude of the displacement of Tibetans that will require the work is not known.
In this regard, Beijing has not revealed details about the costs (it is estimated that the total investment will exceed 130,000 million euros), the companies involved or the number of people that will be relocated. And if we are guided by other cases in Chinese provinces, protests against hydroelectric projects have been repressed, it is suggested that any opposition in the Tibet will be silenced.
Geopolitics of a superpress. The Brahmaputra, which flows to India and Bangladesh, is a vital artery for millions of people. Again, that lack of Chinese transparency has generated distrust in New Delhi and Daca, whose scientists have demanded access to hydrological data to evaluate the risks of the work. India, on the other hand, fears that China use the control of the river as a geopolitical weapon, restricting or diverting the flow in case of conflicts.
Thus, and in the face of uncertainty, some Indian officials have proposed an alternative: building a dam in a tributary of Brahmaputra to counteract possible flow reductions, although this solution does not seem ideal and could also harm the ecology of the region.
Imminent risk. Nikei told this week that the possibility of a catastrophic collapse is not a simple speculation. China has suffered hundreds of dam failures throughout its history, including the worst disaster never registered: the waterfall in cascade of the Banqiao dam and another 61 dams in 1975, an event that caused 85,000 direct deaths and displaced 11 Millions of people. Even the three throats were on the verge of collapse in 2020, endangering 400 million people.
Therefore, if a strong earthquake hit the region and cause the rupture of the superpress, millions of people in the Brahmaputra valley in India and Bangladesh could be affected by catastrophic floods, aggravating. In addition, geopolitical and humanitarian tensions in the region.
If you want also, it is feasible to think that with this mega -Obra, China would not only reinforce its control over the water resources of Asia, but also convert Brahmaputra into a geopolitical weapon, increasing its pressure capacity over its neighbors.
Image | Harvey Barrison, Nasa
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