Sales of major Chinese electric vehicle makers including BYD and Geely fell by nearly half in February from a month prior, hit by the week-long Chinese New Year holiday and a prolonged cold snap, as well as ongoing economic uncertainty.
Why it matters: The slump largely reflects the increasingly fragile position of smaller EV makers, already struggling to maintain reasonable sales volumes while larger rivals compete for market share with new models on offer for lower prices.
- Consolidation within the world’s biggest EV market is expected to accelerate as competition intensifies and growth slows. Li Auto president Ma Donghui told investors last week that the top three brands could together claim 70% of the segment in which an EV is priced from RMB 200,000 ($27,780) by the end of this year.
Details: BYD on March 1 reported its lowest sales since June 2022, with 122,311 vehicles sold last month, a 39.2% fall from January. New energy vehicle (NEV) sales of rival Geely, including battery EVs and plug-in hybrids, dropped 49% month-on-month to 33,508 units.
- Great Wall Motor saw a bigger decline from a month earlier than its rivals as the auto major sold 12,253 EVs in February, a drop of 51%, while sales of Aion, a subsidiary of China’s GAC Group, were 33.2% lower than a month before.
- Jefferies analysts attributed the decline to a seasonal demand lull in the just past Lunar New Year holiday, which reduced working days and dampened buying interest, accompanied by an unexpected cold snap that swept through most of China.
- Smaller EV makers were hit harder than large ones, as monthly sales of both Leapmotor and Hozon Auto fell below 7,000 units, while February deliveries of Xpeng Motors and Voyah were down roughly half to 4,545 and 3,182 units respectively.
- Most automakers have either launched cheaper new models or offered big incentives to drive sales in recent weeks. BYD kicked off 2024 with the launch of at least eight lower-cost version cars over the past two weeks, forcing rivals including Geely, Changan, and Leapmotor to follow suit.
- Huawei-backed EV maker Aito and Nasdaq-listed Li Auto, are among few carmakers to enter 2024 in decent shape, each delivering over 20,000 units last month. General Motors’ joint venture Wuling and NIO saw deliveries drop 18.4% and 19.1% from January respectively.
Context: Analysts expected NEV sales to bounce back in March following recent price cuts by China’s major automakers, as store traffic returns to pre-Lunar New Year levels, according to a March 1 note from Jefferies, citing a Chinese dealership.
- Overall, NEV sales in China declined 29.5% month-on-month to roughly 668,000 units in January, in part due to a high base in December when most automakers made a year-end sales push, according to figures from the China Passenger Car Association.
- The industry group warned that numbers would drop in February to their lowest level of the year as the market entered a traditionally low season. It remains to be seen whether March will witness a sales rebound.
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