The latest report from the International Energy Agency has revealed that this year, global demand for coal reaches a historic high of 8.77 billion tons. In addition, data have indicated China as the country that consumes 30% more than the rest combined.
China. Despite having been talking for several months about the country’s great investment in renewable energy, the Asian giant continues to have a great dependence on fossil fuels. However, in this year 2024 it has been diversifying its electricity sector, advancing in the construction of nuclear plants and increasing its renewable capacity.
Regarding coal plants, China has reduced the number of permits for new plants by 80% in the first half of the year that ends and expects to reduce emissions from new construction by 20%, and reduce them by half by the end. 2027. Although, according to the report, coal demand for that year could be up to 140 million tons, depending on renewable energy generation. However, the Chinese government has made large state expenditures on infrastructure and green technologies to meet climate goals.
The electrical increase? The report published by IEA has detailed that by 2027, the use of coal will not increase and will be stable. However, the agency has explained that the situation has arisen due to a series of factors, including the electrification of services such as transportation and heating, and the growing consumer demand of emerging sectors such as data centers.
In the rest of the countries. The rate of decline in coal demand by 2027 will continue to depend on the policies implemented by different countries, as is the case of the United Kingdom closing its last coal plant this year.
For its part, the study makes reference to the most emerging economies, where electricity demand has increased due to the economic and demographic growth of countries such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam. In other words, growth is driven by coal demand from the power sector.
In the particular case of Spain. Spain has followed a similar trajectory to that of the United Kingdom, closing most of its coal-fired power plants or retrofitting them. The planned date for this was for the year 2030, but they brought it forward for this new year, 2025. The reason for this decision is due to the great capacity and good results of renewables, and that the energy production of coal did not exceed the 1% in 2024.
In short, although coal prices remain 50% higher than the average observed in the report between 2017 and 2019, and maximum production in 2024, the outlook they indicate is one of gradual stabilization. In addition, the investigation focuses its attention on the Asian continent, where coal imports will be in China, India and Vietnam; while Indonesia and Australia will maintain the leadership as exporters.
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